AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, April 15, 2016
***** Corn down 2 at the break; soybeans down 1; Chicago wheat down 1 to 4 1/4. *****

   # Grains trade relatively tight ranges on lower volume than in previous overnight sessions this week.  Outside markets feature somewhat of a risk-off trade.  
   # Short-covering strength for corn and wheat has faded as traders wait to see how weekend weather shapes up.  A clear forecast for the Midwest suggests plenty of planting progress will be made in the region while showers predicted for the Southern Plains would provide a much needed drink to the hard red winter wheat crop.
   # This afternoon’s Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC will be an important one.  Traditional funds have been seen covering corn and wheat shorts while adding new soybean longs.  Long-only index funds have stepped into the commodity market recently looking for ownership and soybeans have been a notable benefit.     
   # Speculative soybean buying looks to have been met by a good deal of farmer selling, both in the U.S. and Brazil.  The Brazilian soybean harvest is nearly 90 percent complete.
   # Harvest in Argentina is currently delayed by wet weather.  Corn harvest is approaching 20 percent done with soybeans around 15 percent cut.  Wet weather is also said to have resulted in crop losses in some regions of the country.    
   # Soybean crush data from the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) will be reported today at 11:00 a.m. central.  Traders look for March crush to be higher on the month, lower on the year at around 156 million bushels.    
   # Malaysian palm exports were up considerably in the first two weeks of April, showing demand to be strong at a time when supply is still threatened by drought.  The palm oil rally has shown signs of stalling now that El Nino is less in the way of precipitation in Southeast Asia.  U.S. soyoil futures are down about two percent so far this month.  
   # Two important events are scheduled for Sunday.  A vote will take place on the impeachment of the Brazilian president.  In Qatar, OPEC and Russia will meet to discuss a potential freeze for oil output levels. 

***** Cattle and hog futures look to attempt a correction from oversold territory at the start. *****

   # Live cattle futures are down nearly $5 on the week despite wholesale beef prices rallying by about that much.  Traders are waiting for the cash market to resume.  $135 live was paid in light volume mid-week, but the trade stalled on Thursday with bids near $133 against offers up to $138.            
   # Hogs have been on the defensive this week as traders expect big slaughter numbers to carry into next week.  Buyers have yet to start accelerating purchases for the summer season in any big way.