AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, April 20, 2016
***** Corn up 1/2 to 2 cents ahead of the break; soybeans down 4 to 4 1/2; Chicago wheat up 2 to 3.​ *****

   # There continues to be chatter heard about investors stepping into the commodity market to find hedges against their inflation expectations.  Gold and soybeans are usual favorites in those efforts; both were up sharply on Tuesday.   
   # The farmer has been an active seller in the current rally, taking advantage of recent gains to make catchup sales on old-crop corn and soybeans.  Producers are also willing sellers of new-crop soybeans and are using the sales to hedge their patience on new-crop corn marketing.  
   # It is early yet for confidence, but analysts are starting to put a number on potential crop loss in Argentina.  Flooding may reduce the country’s soybean crop by up to 10 million metric tons from the USDA’s current 59 mmt.
   # 10 mmt could also be cut from Brazil’s 2015/16 corn crop if hot, dry conditions continue to stress that country’s second crop.  USDA pegged total production at 84 mmt on the April WASDE.  
   # Palm oil prices were higher on Wednesday ahead of data that showed Malaysian exports up through the first three weeks of the month.  Soyoil gains have lagged behind those of beans and meal in April.  
   # Soymeal has benefitted from the wet Argentina story.  With Brazil the big competitor for U.S. soybean exporters, Argentina is the primary source of competition for meal business.  USDA recently estimated that Argentina would export 33 million metric tons of soymeal out of 35 mmt produced.  
   # WTI crude futures are rebounding off overnight lows but still trade softer by about 1.5 percent.  There is less buyer enthusiasm after last weekend’s OPEC meeting ended without an agreement on new production targets. It was also announced that oil workers in Kuwait have ended a strike.   

***** Cattle futures look to start higher in a bid to rebound from oversold territory; hog will open with a test of technical support.​ *****

   # Cattle traders look to wrap up the first half of the week without much optimism over cash market potential.  Tuesday’s weakness for cutout values confirmed suspicions that recent wholesale gains would not be sustained.                   
   # Hog slaughters are still running high and so are weights, but traders see higher production being matched by increasing demand.  With pork still comfortably discounted to beef, the hog market should find support early in the summer season.