AgriVisor Morning Marketwatch

Thursday, April 21, 2016

********** Corn up 1 to 2 cents; soybeans higher by 3 3/4 to 10; Chicago wheat down 1 1/2 to 2 3/4.

   # Soybeans make new one-year highs overnight.  Corn futures are working on fresh six-month highs.  Wheat tags along. 

   # There is little fresh news to point to in explanation of the overnight rally, but the strength is a clear continuation of a speculative buying campaign.  Investors are flipping the switch to bullish and the results show.

   # The existing storyline involving meal helps to stir bullishness for the soy complex.  Argentina remains wet this week and soybean crop losses are mounting.  That has traders thinking the U.S. meal export program will stay stronger longer.

   # Weather influences for the market are mostly limited to talk of a dry Brazil and wet Argentina.  U.S. weather influences are offsetting for now; early planting season conditions are favorable, but La Nina could still become a worry.   

   # Export sales are out this morning.  Corn sales were strong at 47 million bushels, soybeans at 36.7, wheat at 10.8.  New corn bookings were expected near 37 million bushels, soybeans 13, wheat 5. 

   # Ethanol production was up slightly on the week.  Corn grind was 98.6 million bushels versus 98.3 needed per week to meet the USDA’s current 5.25 million bushel target for 2015/16.       

   # Along with the grains, metals are the other commodity sector benefitting most from recent ‘risk-on’ attitude regarding commodities.  Gold futures are up nearly $30 an ounce this week with copper up about six percent so far.

   # The euro is up on the dollar ahead of an interest rate decision from the European Central Bank due out today.  U.S. stock futures are steady and reflecting some new uncertainty over the Chinese economy.  The Initial Jobless Claims report may give the market some direction.        

***** ***** Cattle futures look to start higher in a bid to rebound from oversold territory; hogs will open with a test of technical resistance.     

   # Cattle futures continue to lean weaker and cash expectations are following the board lower.  Friday’s Cattle on Feed report will lend guidance to the trade with analysts looking for on-feed near 101 percent, placements at 106.5 and marketings at 106. 

   # Weights may now be sliding lower to help offset high hog slaughters.  Pork prices have shown some resiliency this week and help support cash and futures expectations.