AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Friday, April 22, 2016
 *****Good Afternoon!*****

   # A volatile week ends with corn down 6 3/4 cents. Soybean future held gains of 31 cents. On Friday, wheat erased 30 cents of gains earned earlier in the week.
   # Grains traded historically high volume this week. Open interest rose early in the week before leveling off into the end. Positions are rolling into the June contracts at a rapid clip. 
   # Traders digested two new estimates for the Argentine soybean crop. The Buenos Aires Grains exchanges dropped from 60 to 56 million metric tons while the Argie government went from 60.9 to 57.6.
   # Growers in Argentina may find relief from wet weather this weekend while the forecast turns wetter for a dry Brazil. 
   # July corn was quick to give up technical support from its 200-day moving average but held above the 100-day. The contract gave back more than 50 percent of gains made in April in just the previous two sessions. A 62 percent retracement would put the potential support for July corn at $3.72 1/2.
   # Active farmer selling pressured local basis levels. Producers were catching up on old-crop corn and soybean sales while also being somewhat aggressive on forward soy sales.
   # Chinese grain import data for March was reported. Wheat imports are up sharply on the year while January-March corn purchases are down almost 50 percent. Soybean imports were up 4 percent in the first quarter. U.S. exporters sourced 81 percent of the soybean total. 
   # Some pressure on soybeans came from a report that showed China's hog herd having contracted by 100 million head over the past year and a half. 
   # Stock, bond, and currency markets reflected shifting expectations for U.S. interest rates. Strong jobs data and better-than-expected 1st quarter corporate earnings are resulting in an increased probability of a rate hike sometime this summer. 

***** Live cattle finish lower by $2.25 to $2.45; feeders down $3 to $3.95; hogs off $0.50 to $0.70. ***** 

   # Cattle futures were locked limit down at one point during Friday's session. The Cattle on Feed report leans friendly relative to expectations. Total on-feed was 100.5 percent, placements at 104.6, and marketings 107.1. Pre-report estimates were 101, 106, and 106. 
   # Hog futures started firmer but fell back to settle on support from their 200-day moving average. The Cold Storage report counted 614 million pounds of pork on inventory, down from 672 million in 2015.