AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, April 22, 2016
***** Corn down 3 to 4 cents; soybeans off 12 to 22; Chicago wheat lower by 10 3/4 to 13 1/4. ​*****

   # Grains are lower overnight as traders rush to take profits on this week’s big move.  
   # Soybeans are correcting back from overbought territory.  Futures had settled above the upper Bollinger Band for three straight days, hinting toward unsustainable volatility. Corn futures are up against resistance from their 200-day moving average.      
   # The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange is down on their 2015/16 soybean crop estimate for Argentina.  The forecast dropped from 60 to 56 million metric tons.  Many analysts expect further cuts due to flooding in the country.  
   # Recent rains have provided some much needed relief for drought-stricken areas of the Southern Plains.  Parts of Kansas and Missouri still have some lingering dry spots to watch.
   # There has been no change to the 6-10 and 8-14 day weather maps.  Both lean warm and wet for the Midwest.  The forecast still assigns clear skies to the weekend.  
   # Stronger river basis reflects improving expectations for U.S. corn and soybean export programs.  Export sales and shipments were better than anticipated this week.  
   # Silver prices are up about 4 percent this week with strong gains for copper too.  Investors are stepping into the commodity space all of a sudden, some say to pick up hedges against their expectations for inflation.    
   # Dollar index futures look to move higher for a third consecutive session.  A falling yen is doing its part as traders priced in fresh news regarding monetary policy from the Bank of Japan.  The dollar is lower against the Brazilian real.  
   # Stock futures are little changed overnight.  Traders are in the process of digesting various 1st quarter corporate earnings reports.  Google, Microsoft, and Caterpillar earnings disappointed late this week.    

***** Cattle futures look to bounce from oversold territory while hogs start with a test of the 20-day moving average.​ *****

   # Today’s Cattle on Feed report will lend guidance to the trade with analysts looking for on-feed near 101 percent, placements at 106.5 and marketings at 106.  
   # The hog market will look to this afternoon’s Cold Storage report for guidance.  Current inventories are thought to be plentiful, but bulls still hold expectations for a tighter supply and demand balance come this summer.