AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Monday, April 25, 2016
***** Corn settled higher by 5 1/4 to 8 1/4 cents; soybeans up 12 3/4 to 14 3/4; Chicago wheat up 3 to 4 1/4. *****

   # A wet forecast for the Midwest had traders thinking planting delays were imminent.  Farmers should be ahead of their usual corn planting pace when the Crop Progress report comes out later this afternoon.  Some guesses see the crop being as much as 35 percent planted. 
   # Corn futures settled in the upper half of the day’s trading range.  The July contract kept support from the 100-day moving average but was turned away from the 200-day.  Soybean futures held gains of 1.25 percent but retreated from session highs after poking up out of the upper Bollinger Band.  
   # Fund traders were again an active participant in the market.  Money managers are reluctant to hold corn shorts as we enter the growing season.  A hot products market has funds adding more length to their bullish soy bets.  Index funds are also seen rotating investment money into the ag commodity sector.  
   # It was another strong export inspection report for corn this week.  Shipments were up on the previous week at 1.137 million metric tons.  Soybeans were near the average trade guess at 279,000 tons.  Corn exports are on track to meet the USDA goal, which is 11.5 percent smaller than a year ago.  USDA looks for soybean exports to drop 7.5 percent on the year. 
   # Market participants are waiting to see how China will go about selling corn from the country’s large stockpile.  Estimates have Chinese inventories totaling north of 100 million metric tons or half of the world’s carryout this year.  
   # Grain markets in the Black Sea are getting a boost from South American production worries.  Buyers are turning to Russia/Ukraine/Romania to make forward purchases as they take into account tightening supply estimates in Brazil and Argentina.  U.S. export programs are benefiting similarly.
   # Analysts are saying soybean losses in Argentina are up to 4 or 5 million metric tons due to wet weather in April.  The country should run drier this week, but cold temperatures are now a threat.       
   # Oil was notably absent from the commodity market rally today.  WTI futures were bumping up against technical resistance from their 200-day moving average.  Fundamentalists note that supplies are still plenty abundant, but summer demand expectations are price positive.      

***** Live cattle finish lower by $2.25 to $2.45; feeders down $3 to $3.95; hogs off $0.50 to $0.70. *****

   # Cattle futures benefited from a Friday afternoon Cattle on Feed report that tallied placements under expectations.  A board that is in oversold territory and trades a considerable discount to the cash market begs for support.           
   # Expected weakness in the cash market weighs on nearby hog futures while the deferred months still find support from an outlook that has the supply and demand balance tightening this summer.