AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, April 25, 2016
***** Corn up 2 cents ahead of the break; soybeans down 4 1/4 to 6 1/4; Chicago wheat fractionally firmer. *****

   # The weekly Crop Progress report due out after the bell should show that U.S. farmers have around 30 percent of the corn crop planted.  Soybeans could be up to 5 percent planted.
   # Wet weather in the Delta had traders expecting some corn-to-soy acres switching, but conditions have so far been favorable for planting season in the Midwest.  Some still suggest that the recent premium attached to soybeans will entice farmers to switch.       
   # Friday’s CFTC report showed fund traders covering a large portion of their bearish corn bet.  A net-long swing of 105,000 contracts put them still net-short by 31,000.  The large speculators were back to being bearish corn after the official reporting week ended last Tuesday, though.     
   # July corn futures work to keep technical support from their 100-day moving average.  The overnight move finished a 62 percent retracement the April rally.  July soybean futures are still ahead of the 38 percent retracement target at $9.75.  
   # Current weather maps have the month of May starting out cooler and wetter than average.  Storms are expected to pop up in the Midwest starting mid-week.  Corn and soybean planting delays are likely to be faced, but more moisture will be welcomed by winter wheat growers.  
   # Traders will watch to see how much rain is collected in Brazil this week.  Dry conditions still remain a threat to the country’s second corn crop.  Parts of Argentina should dry out this week, but cold temperatures are becoming the next threat to the soybean crop.
   # Dollar futures are lower overnight.  The index has been consolidating on the charts during the month of April, but some heightened volatility will likely go along with this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. 
   # This week’s Fed meeting should be a big influence for the grains.  If the central bank remains dovish on its interest rate stance, investors may continue to pile into the commodity space in an effort to hedge against their inflation expectations.       

***** Cattle and hog futures look to start steady/firmer on technical buying. *****

   # Friday’s Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports came both leaned friendly for the cattle market.  The bullish data will be partly offset by current production levels that continue to run high.    
   # Hog slaughters and weights show signs of peaking, allowing production to level off at a time when demand is starting to pick up.  Friday’s Cold Storage report would provide some support to futures at the start, but weaker outside markets may get in the way.