AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, April 26, 2016
***** Corn up 2 cents ahead of the break; soybeans higher by 2 to 3; Chicago wheat up 1 to 2.​ *****

   # Grains trade somewhat quietly relative to some recent overnight sessions.  Futures are starting to take on a firmer bias as we head closer to the morning break.  
   # The Crop Progress report tallied U.S. corn plantings at 30 percent complete.  Illinois and Iowa are well ahead of their average pace at 42 and 40 percent, respectively.  The soybean crop is three percent planted compared to a 2 percent average.  
   # Winter wheat is estimated to be 59 percent good or excellent, which is up on the week and above the 42 percent ratings from this time last year.  26 percent of the crop has headed.  
   # There was very little to no rain to fall across most of the Midwest yesterday evening.  Severe thunderstorms may develop in the Southern Plains by mid-afternoon today, bringing with them chances of tornadoes and hail.  
   # Traders await Thursday’s export sales report after Monday’s inspections data were strong for corn, weak for soybeans.  Some analysts continue to look for a cut to the USDA’s corn export target while others suggest that another 25 million bushels could be added to it if shipments continue to run their current pace.  All are eager to see whether or not crop troubles in South America bring extra corn and soy new-crop business to the U.S. in coming weeks.  
   # A dry Brazil, wet Argentina has analysts adjusting their production forecasts for those two countries.  Versus the USDA estimate for Brazilian soybean production of 100 million metric tons, most see it at 98-99 mmt.  Some look for an Argentine soybean crop to come in as low as 55 mmt versus USDA’s 59 mmt. 
   # July corn futures are working on a small test of resistance from the 10-day moving average. More formidable resistance will come from the 200-day MA currently drifting lower from $3.88 3/4.  Soybean futures are working to keep support from the psychologically-important $10.00 mark.   
   # Action in outside financial markets will be driven by positioning ahead of the FOMC meeting that starts today.  The central bank is not expected to raise interest rates this month, but a rate hike may be on the table for June.    

***** Cattle and hog futures look to start steady/firmer on technical buying.​ *****

   # Cattle futures’ discount to the cash market provides support for futures while at the same time spelling trouble for cash.  A deeply oversold futures curve should do some of the work in dampening the eventual blow for the cash market.       
   # Cattle weakness has been a headwind for the hog market while higher grain prices and lower outside markets have added pressure.  Premiums held by the wholesale market likely limit significant cash upside in the near-term.