AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Thursday, April 28, 2016
***** Corn up 4 to 6 1/2 cents; July soybeans down 1, November up 5; Chicago wheat up 2 cents, KC wheat down 2. ***** 

   # Not a great technical close for the grains.  Traders were ready to take profits on a move that extended overbought conditions for soybeans futures.  Corn futures held up better as optimism from the strong export sales report was sustained.  
   # The export sales numbers are worth re-reporting.  New corn sales for 2015/16 were a surprisingly-good 2.2 million metric tons versus expectations of 1-1.3 mmt.  Soybeans sales were fair for the current crop, good for the 2016/17 season.
   # The International Grains Council upped its estimate for world grain production in 2016/17.  The group suggests better prospects for the corn crop should offset lower output for wheat and minor feed grains.  
   # Soyoil futures have been on the short end of oil/meal spreads lately.  The recently-supportive edible oil rally as stalled as traders anticipate a rebuilding of palm stocks in Asia once El Nino gets out of the way.
   # Saudi Arabia is turning to the trade market to make a large purchase of bread wheat.  The tender calls for offers on 550,000 metric tons.  Prices for wheat in the Black Sea have been rising with strong demand recently, so traders in Europe and the U.S. may be able to put together competitive offer sheets. 
   # A Reuters story reported that a third of Argentina’s soybean crop is still flooded by precipitation accumulated in April.  Analysts mostly agree that the crop is down to at most 57 million metric tons from earlier estimates of 59, but some go so far as to suggest output could end up as low as 50 mmt.
   # The Department of Commerce estimated U.S. 1st quarter GDP at 0.5 percent.  Economists were looking for something slightly higher.  The number has the potential to be revised higher and also has a seasonal bias to it, but 0.5 percent growth is by no means a positive data point for the economy.      

***** June live cattle finish lower by the $3 limit, feeders down the $4.50 limit; hogs settle higher by $0.97 to $1.30. ***** 

   # Cattle futures faced follow-through selling pressure from the bears at the start and losses mounted further after wholesale beef started posting at lower values.  June futures look headed for a test of the contract low made last week at $113.90.
   # A softer dollar is helping out the pork export program.  Some additional demand will help clear building inventories that have resulted from several busy slaughter weeks.  Futures are working with some new-found technical momentum after the July settled above its 100-day moving average yesterday and over its 50-day today.