AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, April 29, 2016
***** Corn futures up 1 1/2 to 4 1/2 cents; soybeans higher by 3 1/2 to 4 1/2; Chicago wheat up 2 to 5. *****

   # Month-end comes with grains holding gains, but a lack of fresh news has futures possibly vulnerable to some profit-taking pressure.   
   # Corn futures benefit from technical buying overnight.  July futures bounced from a brief test of the 200-day moving average and are working on yesterday’s high.  
   # Corn futures also benefit from fundamental bullishness sparked Thursday from a strong export sales report.  Cumulative sales are a touch behind the total from this time last year, but analysts suggest business will be heavier than normal throughout the final weeks of the marketing season.  
   # Talk of wet weather in Argentina has somewhat overshadowed the issue of drought spreading in Brazil.  Hot, dry conditions are expected to return this weekend and serve as a continuing threat to Brazil’s second crop corn production. 
   # Some of the aggressive estimates have dry weather curbing Brazilian corn production by up to 10 million metric tons.  The USDA April estimate of 84 mmt for Brazil’s total corn crop was issued before adverse-weather worries had fully developed.
   # Soyoil futures are up overnight despite new-found pessimism over the outlook for edible oils in general.  Malaysian palm prices are close to two-month lows as the market loses luster because of El Nino’s exit.  The soy complex could hold some weather premium if La Nina continues to be a talked about threat for U.S. production this season.  
   # Fund traders are approaching the net-even mark on their corn position.  In just two month’s money managers have went from holding a net-short of over 200,000 contracts to now being close to holding at net-long.  Funds already maintain a soybean net-long of nearly 200,000 contracts.  
   # Dollar index futures have reached new contract lows this morning and help to provide some support to commodities.  Strong European economic data released today puts a bid under the euro currency. 
   # Stock index futures are little changed overnight.  Several big energy companies, including Exxon Mobil, report earnings today.  Tech companies LinkedIn and Amazon beat earnings on Thursday.  Ford also posted a beat yesterday and the stock rallied 3.15 percent.      

***** Cattle and hog futures look to take on a firmer tone at the start.​ *****

   # April futures hold a discount to cash ahead of their expiration today.  That contract’s expiration will leave the June with a nearly $10 discount to the $124 expected to trade in the cash market today. 
   # Hog traders took note of strong exports sales this week; they were up 11 percent on the week and 12 percent on the year.  Help from the export market in diverting excess supply from the domestic market leans supportive hog prices.