AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Tuesday, May 03, 2016
***** Grains were hit hard Tuesday, with corn down 10-12 cents, soybeans off 7-14 cents, and wheat mostly off 17-19 cents. *****  

   # Tuesday’s rebound from overnight weakness in the Dollar seemed to set off a cascade of selling, allowing grain prices to decline.  The absence of any new positive news regarding the S. American crops may have helped undermine prices.  Soybean prices in particular were ripe for profit taking, with their weakness pulling support out from under the other 2 grains.  
   # There was some confusing, uncertain talk about Brazilian corn early, with a major consulting firm indicating Mato Gross state officials revised acreage up 21% from their prior estimate.  In fact, those officials revised up last year’s data, which in turn lifted this year’s.  The year-on-year increase is still only 5.5%.  The state govt. did lower their yield forecast, with it now expected to come in 16.5% under last year. There’s much confusion about this year’s 2nd crop corn, confusion that may be cleared up by new USDA and CONAB forecasts.
   # Informa lowered their Brazilian corn estimate 2.7 mmt. to 81.  They left their Argentine and Brazilian soybean estimates at 55 and 100 mmt respectively, both a little above current popular opinion.
   # Informa also released their winter wheat forecast.  The total crop is expected to be 1.405 bln. bu., up 35 mln. from last year.  HRW is expected to slip 3 to 824 mln., SRW increase 6 to 365 mln., with white increasing 33 to 217 mln. bu. 
   # The annual Kansas wheat tour kicked off today, with early news highlighting good potential.  But they didn’t get to more important areas until later today, with the next 2 days the key areas.  A smaller tour covering parts of Oklahoma will catch up with them, with the tour winding up Thursday. There is some talk of potential for a new record yield, but not a record crop because of smaller acreage.
   # The 6-10 and 8-14 day maps changed a lot today.  Temps for both are mostly normal to cool.  The precip outlook tends toward the wet side, especially for the south and eastern sections.  The far northern regions of the Midwest are the only dry spots.  The structure doesn’t necessarily make for fast completion of planting, but still doesn’t suggest it will be significantly impeded.  Cool temps will slow early growth. 
   # Brazilian 2nd crop corn areas still look to be on the dry side, with some talk the rainy season may have ended a little early this year.  Argentina looks to have some intermittent showers, but overall the pattern is much more conducive to harvest than it was in April.
   # Global growth fears were a part of the mix in a broad range of markets today, including equities, currencies, and energies, with equities and energies lower and the Dollar a bit firmer.

***** Live cattle finished $0.57-$0.75 higher, feeders $1.97-$0.67 higher, and lean hogs $0.05-$0.22 higher. ***** 

   # Cattle futures held firm on small midday strength in the wholesale sector, but those values were hit hard in the afternoon trade, with prices down $3 or more. Cash cattle trading was non-existent.  Traders are hoping lower wholesale prices can jump start retail demand. 
   # Hog futures drifted sideways, with traders waiting for more indications the seasonal slide in numbers has accelerated. Cash hog prices were firm Tuesday, but wholesale prices were slightly lower.