AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, May 04, 2016
***** Corn futures down 1 1/2 to 4 1/2 cents at the break; soybeans down 2 to 5; Chicago wheat steady. *****

   # Follow-through selling puts grains on the defensive overnight.  First deliveries for May futures add pressure on corn.  Outside markets are mostly a non-influence on the grains so far this morning.   
   # The two-week weather maps lean slightly cool and mostly wet for the Midwest.  There remains little worry about planting delays after a strong start to the season.  
   # Yield estimates from the Kansas City Wheat Tour are being discussed this week.  The first portion of the state was tagged with a 47 bushels per acre projection versus 34 last year.    
   # Some meteorologists are calling it an early end to Brazil’s rainy season.  Dry conditions have spelled trouble for the country’s second corn crop.
   # The Brazilian corn output estimate will be one of many key numbers to get some attention next week when the USDA issues the May WASDE report.  Analysts are looking for Brazilian corn to drop 3-5 million metric tons from the USDA’s April 84 mmt estimate.  
   # USDA’s Brazilian soybean estimate may also take a cut on May 10.  Also up for revision – probably to the downside – are corn and soybean production forecasts for Argentina.  Drier weather is helping to provide late crops some relief after April flooding. 
   # The charts lean weaker after Tuesday’s tumble.  July corn futures lost support from their 200-day moving average and are headed for a test of support where the 50- and 100-day moving averages currently run nearly level to an important low made on April 25th.  
   # Crude oil futures are rallying ahead of the weekly inventory report.  Domestic stockpiles are expected to grow another 1.3 million barrels on the week.     

***** Cattle and hog futures look to take on a defensive tone at the start.​ *****

   # The surprising dip for wholesale beef prices on Tuesday should keep futures bulls on the defensive.  If anything, lower beef prices are helping to create an positive environment for retail beef demand.   
   # Hog traders are looking to see where today’s weekly Iowa marketing weight numbers land.  There remains some uncertainty as to whether or not production will continue to drift lower, but there remains a good deal of optimism over the demand outlook.