AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, May 10, 2016
***** Corn and wheat unchanged at the break; soybeans up 8 1/2 to 10 1/2 cents. *****

   # Corn and wheat trade fractionally weaker while soybeans take on some strength late in the overnight session.  Volumes are low ahead of what promises to be an active report day trade.    
   # Meal is the leader for soy overnight.  Soyoil futures are on the defensive, unable to take advantage of support from higher palm oil markets in Asia.     
   # First glance for today’s crop report will likely be given to corn yield.  While the USDA is all but sure to plug in the March 31 acres estimate, government analysts are not bound to using a trend line yield.   
   # Hedge funds participated in yesterday’s sell off by liquidating longs.  They are still estimated to be net-long by 60,000 contracts of corn and nearly 175,000 soybeans.  
   # Brazil’s crop agency dropped its corn production estimate down to 80 million metric tons from 84.7.  USDA’s April estimate was 84 mmt.  Estimates for today’s report range from 78–83 mmt. 
   # Planting progress numbers were near the top end of trade expectations with corn at 64 percent, soybeans 23.  Illinois and Iowa were well ahead of their five-year averages at 78 and 80 percent for corn and 19 and 29 percent for soybeans, respectively.
   # Winter wheat ratings gained a point to stand at 62 percent good or excellent.  Last year, the portion of the crop with the same ratings was only 44 percent.
   # The Brazilian real currency is a touch higher this morning after yesterday’s volatile session.  After a leader of Brazil’s lower house put up and then himself removed an unexpected roadblock for President Rousseff’s impeachment, the upper house will be able to cast its impeachment vote.  
   # U.S. stock futures point to a higher open for the major indexes as they enjoy spillover strength from Asian and European markets.  The economic calendar is mostly empty today.  Many small pharmaceutical companies will report earnings.

***** Cattle look to open steady/firmer as hogs attempt to bounce from technical support. ​*****

   # Greater optimism over prospects for the cash market helps to provide support to cattle futures at the start of the week.  Technical direction has improved, but the quick turn up leaves futures overbought in the short-run.  The up-gap opened yesterday will be an area of support, starting with $122.25 for the June contract.   
   # Hog slaughters remain stubbornly high and help to pressure the market.  Weights are also seasonally heavy.  If high production isn’t enough, pork is struggling to compete with cheap beef.