AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Friday, May 13, 2016
***** Corn futures up 1 1/2 to 2 after starting lower; soybeans finish lower by 6 1/2 to 7; Chicago wheat up 4 to 6 3/4.  ***** 

   # Down in the three days following the report, July soybeans still posted a gain of 30 1/4 cents for the week.  July corn finished the five sessions higher by 13 1/4.  July Chicago wheat up 11.
   # A big daily soybean sale was announced.  420,00 metric tons were booked by unknown buyers.  More than half of sale will be delivered during the 2015/16 marketing year.
   # July corn futures found buying interest when they dipped down to their 200-day moving average.  The contract will face psychologically-important resistance from $4 before having a test of the six-month high at $4.07 1/4.
   # Grain futures on China’s Dalian exchange were pressured at the end of the week by talk of the government tightening restrictions on speculative activity.  Regulators are stepping in after Chinese commodity markets have featured historical volatility in recent months.
   # Edible oil markets are back and forth lately.  Drought has cut palm production in Southeast Asia, but the El Nino that caused dry weather is on its way out.  Still, dry soils could have an impact in the region for some time to come.
   # Funds were active sellers of soy, buyers of corn again today.  The large speculators should leave the week with a net-long position of approximately 175,000 soybean contracts and 100,000 corn.  They remain net-short wheat by 40-50,000 contracts.  
   # Weekend weather will be the important source of guidance for next week’s trade.  The latest runs of the weather models lean slightly less wet than they did earlier.  Southern Illinois and much of Indiana and Ohio have faced planting delays recently because of the extra moisture.  
   # NOPA crush will be reported on Monday.  Traders expect to see April soybean crushings at 149 million bushels, which would be down from 156.7 in March and 150.4 in April 2105.
   # Traders were pricing in a slightly higher chance that the Fed will raise interest rates in June after this morning’s retail sales data came in better than expected.  The dollar index rose on the improved rate hike chances.        

***** June live cattle up $0.85 with the back months down $0.12 to $0.40; feeders off $0.77 to $1.60; hogs down $0.07 to $1.05. ***** 

   # June cattle moved higher to catch up with yesterday’s improved cash trade, but the deferred months finished weaker.  Futures will open next week with an important test of technical resistance.                       
   # The hog trade featured some spreading activity, but futures were on the defensive throughout the session.  Cash deals were being done at lower prices with the midday report showing the Western Corn Belt average lower by $1.20.  The cutout report had the carcass average at $84.29, up $1.16.