AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, May 16, 2016
***** Corn down 2 3/4 cents; soybeans down 2 to 3; Chicago wheat up fractionally. *****

   # Spread unwinding was the post-report theme last week with traders liquidating soy longs and adding length to long corn bets.  Money managers are estimated to have entered the new week with net-longs of approximately 50,000 corn and 185,000 soybeans.    
   # NOPA crush will be reported today at 11:00 central.  April soybean crushing should be down on the month and down on the year at something within 147-149 million bushels.  
   # This afternoon’s Crop Progress report should show the corn crop to be around 75 percent planted.  Soybeans are expected to be around 35 percent planted as of Sunday. 
   # Condition ratings for the nation’s winter wheat crop should have improved last week. An addition of a point or two would bring the good/excellent rating to 63-64 percent.   
   # Ukraine’s wheat crop may not turn out as large as earlier anticipated with private forecasters recently coming out with trimmed production estimates.  The country remains a major competitor for the U.S. in the export market.    
   # Cold temperatures descended upon parts of the northern Midwest this weekend, but serious damage to emerged corn is not expected to have occurred.  Temperatures should moderate this week to go along with dry conditions that would be conducive to planting.  
   # Last week’s WASDE report is still being discussed by analysts who see the corn demand estimates as much too aggressive.  USDA’s 2016/17 carryout estimate of 2.153 billion bushels compares with private estimates that reach as high as 2.5 billion. 
   # Oil is higher this morning as Goldman Sachs puts a $50 price target on it for the second half of 2016.  WTI futures trade at a fresh three-month high with the six-month high just overhead.    

***** Cattle and hog futures look to start the week steady to firmer. *****

   # Strong demand helps to offset high beef production and has cattle futures trading choppy.  The weakness for the wholesale market in April has brought prices down to levels that are very competitive at the retail counter.  Production is stubbornly high, though, having been up 2.1 percent week over week and up 6.1 year over year last week.                
   # Pork supplies look to be finally tightening after production had been holding stubbornly high.  Slaughters were down 2.5 percent week over week last week.