AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, May 17, 2016
***** Corn down 3/4 to 1 1/4 at the break; soybeans up 3 to 4 1/4; Chicago wheat up fractionally. ​*****

   # Corn faces light selling pressure overnight after the Crop Progress report showed plantings 75 percent done as of Sunday.  Field scouts estimated the soybean crop at 36 percent planted.
   # The Crop Progress wheat numbers were somewhat of a negative for the market.  Winter crop condition ratings did not improve as expected but still hold strong at 62 percent Good/Excellent compared with 45 percent a year ago.  The spring wheat crop is 89 percent planted compared with a five-year pace average of 64 percent.  
   # Light showers popping up across the Midwest today and tomorrow will disrupt some planting efforts, but the forecast calls for clearer skies toward the weekend for most.
   # It is forecasted to be another dry week for most of Brazil.  Analysts are moving even further down with their production estimates for the country’s second crop.  Some of the most aggressive have total corn output for Brazil as low as 75 million metric tons compared with the USDA currently at 81 mmt. 
   # July soybeans trade higher overnight, but within yesterday’s range.  The contract will find resistance and support at the report day high and low, $10.91 1/2 and $10.23 1/2.  Key psychological support from $10 coincides with important retracement points. 
   # July corn is facing some technical push-back from $3.95 as it makes its way toward a test of resistance from $4 even.  Above $4 is the six-month high of $4.07 1/4.  There is little in the way of resistance above $4.07 1/4 and before the one-year high of $4.71 1/4.
   # Higher palm oil prices were observed in Asia on Tuesday.  Export numbers have been stronger recently and are expected to improve further as China and India become more active buyers.  U.S. soyoil futures were the laggard of the complex overnight, up just marginally.  
   # Outside markets are quiet overnight.  U.S. stock index futures are a touch lower but find support from higher international markets.  Oil futures are steady after a strong Monday.  The dollar is flat against its major trading partners.       

***** Cattle and hog futures look to open steady to firmer with spreading actively featured again.​ *****

   # It was a strong start to the week for boxed beef with Choice and Select cuts closing Monday higher by $3.84 and $2.59, respectively.  The gains failed to stop sellers from pressuring June futures as traders are not overly optimistic about cash market potential at this point in the week.                  
   # Traders do have optimism over cash potential for hogs.  Despite the fact that pork is entering the grilling season with greater than expected competition from beef, the prospects for summer demand remain strong.  Still, the market faces the headwind of stubbornly high production.