AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, May 23, 2016
***** Corn down 3 cents ahead of the break; soybeans off 9 1/2 to 15 1/2; Chicago wheat lower by 4 3/4 to 5 1/2. ***** 

   # Grains trade lower on an active overnight session.  Soy futures continue to feature heightened volatility.  Volume and open interest will be watched closely this week as to help see whether or not corn and soybeans have made a short-term top.   
   # July soymeal futures put on an 8.5 percent gain last week.  Bulls point to the idea that U.S. exporters will gain more meal business because of crop loss in Argentina.  July futures have become overbought and are opening the new week with tests of technical resistance from last week’s high and the 200-day moving average. 
   # Friday brought some showers to where they were unwanted in Indiana and Ohio but the rest of the weekend was dry for most in the Midwest.  The forecast for this week has weather wet in the West, drier in the East.  The two week maps lean warmer than normal.  
   # Crop Progress numbers will be reported after the closing bell.  Corn is expected to be nearly 90 percent planted with around 55 percent of the soybean crop put in the ground. 
   # Friday’s CFTC report showed funds upping the ante on their bullish ag commodities bet.  The soybean net-long inched higher, but it did not reach a new record as some had expected.  Managed money’s net-long soymeal position should have surpassed 75,000 contracts on last week’s rally.  
   # Corn futures trade within Friday’s range and just ahead of the 10-day moving average. The July’s $3.85 1/2 low from last week will provide potential support. Nearby soybean futures head for a test of support at $10.50 with more important support maintained by the May 10 low of $10.23 1/2.
   # Stocks, bonds, and currencies continue to be driven by speculation over how the Federal Reserve will guide interest rates in the coming months.  Recent strength for the commodity market could be put in jeopardy if the dollar continues to appreciate.         
***** Cattle futures expected to face pressure at the start; hogs should open steady to weaker. *****

   # The Cattle on Feed report featured a bearish surprise with placements up 7 percent on the year.  Analysts had expected a small decline.                          
   # Hog production was lower last week to help improve sentiment for the market. A Cold Storage report will be released this afternoon to give additional fundamental guidance.  The technical outlook for futures turns bearish after the June contract gave up support from its major moving averages last week.