AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Thursday, May 26, 2016
***** Corn futures up 1 1/4 to 3 1/2 cents; soybeans down 1 3/4 to 5 3/4; Chicago wheat up 11 3/4 to 15 1/4. *****

*** Check Soybean Advice.

   # It was another choppy trading day for the grains.  Futures were higher all around overnight, but corn and soybeans slid lower on the 8:30 open, only for corn to recover into the close.  Trading volumes for corn and wheat were above average for the month. 
   # Soymeal finished higher for the 14th of 19 sessions this month.  Nearby meal futures are up $77.50 per ton, or 23 percent, in May.  There was less talk of the meal fundamentals related to Argentina crop size/quality and more chatter about shorts still getting squeezed. 
   # July 2016 corn futures notched in a new six-month high.  The one-year high from July 14 stands at $4.71 1/4.  On the continuous chart, July 2015 futures left a high of $4.38 3/4 to watch.  
   # Wheat futures benefited from some technical strength of their own.  The Chicago contracts rallied out of what could end up being a double bottom formation opened in the month of May.  $4.84 3/4 for July wheat is the high to watch.  
   # Technical momentum helped encourage bearish fund traders to ditch wheat shorts.  The large speculators had held a net-short of around 75,000 contracts coming into today.   
   # Soybean sales reached the USDA’s 2015/16 export target on today’s weekly tally of 16.8 million bushels.  Corn sales were also strong at 54.4 million bushels.  Daily sales of 130,000 and 123,000 bushels of corn were announced by the USDA – 188,000 for 2015/16 and 65,000 for 2016/17.  
   # New grain production estimates from the International Grains Council circulated today.  The analysts’ world corn estimate for 2016/17 increased to 1.003 billion tons.  World soybean output is expected to drop 5 million tons on the year to 320 million tons.  
   # Outside markets were choppy on the session.  Oil futures traded a dollar range while facing some push-back from sellers above $50.  Traders of stocks and bonds approached markets with tentativeness ahead of a Friday afternoon speech from Fed Chair Yellen.  

***** Live cattle up $0.77 to $1.95; feeder cattle higher by $1.70 to $2.72; hogs gain $0.37 to $1.57. *****

   # Cattle futures continued their rebound as expectations for the cash market became a little less pessimistic.  Early-week cash deals at $125 live were lower on the week but still maintain a comfortable margin over futures.  Beef prices have held up OK this week and were up a touch today.  June futures stepped into the chart gap opened on Monday but did not close it.      
   # A decline for hog slaughters and weights will help ease some of the pressure that high production has had on prices.  Cash and wholesale values set back some today.  Friday’s trade should be an active one as traders position themselves for a long weekend that will kick off the summer season.