AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Tuesday, May 31, 2016
***** Corn futures down 5 to 8 cents; soybeans off 1/2 to 8; Chicago wheat lower by 12 1/2 to 17. *****

   # Grains dropped back as traders chose to book some profit on the month’s end.  Corn futures gained 14 1/2 cents in May.  Soybeans closed the month higher by 57 1/2 while wheat fell 13 1/2.
   # USDA crop scouts estimated corn to be 94 percent planted, which was near the top end of trade estimates.  Soybeans are pegged at 73 percent planted, also ahead of the average trade guess.  
   # The first set of condition ratings for the corn crop found it 4 percent Very Poor/Poor, 24 percent Fair, and 72 percent Good/Excellent.  The corn crop was 74 percent G/E this time last year.  U.S. winter wheat was up a point to 63 percent G/E. 
   # Sellers drove wheat lower early and never let up.  Traders are finding little reason to buy as yield potential for the U.S. winter crop continues to improve.  Large global surpluses and a strong dollar stack up bearish for the demand side.  
   # A group of Brazilian analysts dropped their estimate for corn production in Mato Grosso by another 8 percent.  Cuts to that state’s output will help slash potential for the entire Brazilian second crop.
   # Farmers in Argentina will turn their focus to the corn harvest now that the soybean crop is all but put away.  Dry weather is in store for most of the country this week.    
   # The government’s weather maps point to a drier two weeks coming up for the Midwest.  Scattered showers could continue to pop up through midweek.  The 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks lean cooler in the East, warmer in the West. 
   # Weekly export inspections were reported – 31 million bushels corn, 6.7 million soybeans, 18.2 million wheat.  Cumulative shipments for both corn and soybeans still run behind the pace needed to meet USDA targets. 
   # A daily soybean sale of 213,000 metric tons of soybeans was announced.  73,000 tons were booked for 2015/16 with the remainder scheduled for delivery in 2106/17. The purchase was made by an unknown buyer.  
   # A report showed the Case-Shiller Home Price Index rising 5.2 percent on the year ending in March.  Personal spending was up 0.4 percent last month, as anticipated.  Another report showed consumer confidence declining in May.  The bigger monthly jobs report comes up on Friday.    

***** Live cattle up $1.40 to $1.625; feeders higher by $0.27 to $0.52; hogs gain $0.05 to $0.37. ***** 

   # Cash cattle prices slipped lower last week but not by as much as had been feared, so futures start the week with support.  Still, buyers may not be willing to close the gap between discounted futures and the cash market.  June and July futures made a positive technical close with a settlement above their 50-day moving averages.          
   # Optimism over potential for better pork demand helps support hog futures at the start of the week.  Expectations for the seasonal dip in production to start taking place also helps the market.