AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Thursday, June 09, 2016
***** Corn futures down 3 to 6; soybeans down 1 3/4 to up 3 1/4 with relative strength in the new-crop contracts; Chicago wheat drops 8 1/2 to 9 1/4. ****​*

   # Soybean futures found support after weekly export sales beat expectations.  758,500 tons for 2015/16 exceeded top-end guesses of 500,000.  New corn sales for 2015/16 were also robust at 1.56 million tons versus trade predictions of 0.9-1.2 million.
   # The solid weekly export report was followed up by a daily sales announcement.  China has booked 240,000 tons of soybeans for 2016/17 delivery. 
   # The June WASDE update will be issued at 11:00 a.m. central on Friday.  Analysts look for old-crop corn carryout to drop by about 30 million bushels while soybean ending stocks fall 15 million.  A bigger estimate for U.S. winter wheat production is expected to flow through to a new-crop carryout projection that should grow from the May number.
   # South American production estimates are ripe for revision.  Brazil’s Conab agency cut corn and soybean crops to 76.2 and 95.6 million tons, respectively, compared with USDA May estimates at 81 and 99.  The Argentine bean number is also on the chopping block.    
   # Temperatures are on the cold side, but dry weather is allowing farmers in Argentina to wrap up the soybean harvest and make headway on corn.  The Argie soybean harvest should be approaching 90 percent done while just more than a third of the corn crop should have been pulled in by now.  Both efforts lag behind the usual pace of progress.
   # Showers dipped further into the central Midwest than expected today.  Rain may stick around in the northern Plains this evening and storms could pop up in areas throughout Minnesota and Wisconsin on Friday.  A dry Saturday/Sunday for most of the Midwest will give way to increased chances for precipitation at the start of next week.  
   # The Wall Street Journal surveyed economists on their expectations for the next hike to the federal funds rate.  6 percent of those polled still see rates being raised this month, 51 percent say it will happen when the committee meets in July, 30 percent say not until September, and 8 percent expect higher rates to wait for December.         

***** Live cattle finishes fractionally higher; feeders settle little changed; June hogs gain $0.62 while the July drops $1. *****

   # Another day of gains in the wholesale market helped to encourage buying in the futures market.  After some early worry that warmer temperatures would curb beef demand this weekend, the thought is now that the weather will be enticing enough to draw consumers out to their grills.    
   # Pork export sales were up on the week and added to a very strong cumulative total, but traders had expected better demand from the Chinese to be a bigger boost to this week’s number.  Higher slaughters and heavier weights are an added weight for the market as we close out the week.