AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, June 10, 2016
***** Corn up 1 to 2; soybeans higher by 3 to 4 1/2; Chicago wheat off 1 to 2. ***** 

   # November soybeans notch in a fresh one-year high overnight.  Futures are driven by technical momentum, as fresh fundamental news is limited ahead of the crop report. 
   # July soybean futures trade within Thursday’s range.  Up ahead for technical resistance is the psychologically-important $12 mark, along with $12.09, which marks a 38 percent retracement of the move down from the all-time high to this year’s low.  
   # USDA updates the balance sheets at 11:00 a.m. central.  Analysts expect a 30 million bushel cut to 2015/16 corn carryout and a 15 million bushel reduction to soybean carryout.  Significant adjustments to production estimates for Brazil and Argentina are expected.  
   # Corn and soybean carryout cuts would likely be a result of increased export targets.  Thursday’s export sales report confirmed that U.S. traders are enjoying strong late-season demand.   
   # Showers in the central Midwest could pop up sooner than had been expected earlier in the week.  Storms will be present in the upper Midwest again today.  The run-up in temperatures starts today. 
   # Fund traders remain active participants in market.  The large speculators have built a record net-long soybean position that exceeds 250,000 contracts.  A net-long corn bet is approaching 175,000 contracts.  
   # U.S. stock index futures point to a lower open as weaker markets in Asian and Europe provide pressure.  Energy shares will slump on oil’s turn down from technically-overbought territory.   

***** Cattle futures look to open steady/stronger; hogs likely to face pressure at the start. *****

   # The cattle market has featured a firmer tone this week behind gains in the wholesale market.  A discount to the cash market continues to lend support to cattle futures.  The bulls will look to keep August cattle supported by the contract’s 100-day moving average.                      
   # A bearish reversal on Thursday may be a sign that hog futures are losing steam.  A correction would be expected to bring futures back in line with cash values.  The market should keep underlying support as long as a strong demand storyline is sustained.