AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Wednesday, June 15, 2016
***** Corn futures slid 7-8 cents; soybeans were 11-13 lower, with Chicago wheat 7-8 lower. *****   

   Weather was the decisive element that weakened the grain markets Thursday.  Early week rains across the Midwest were mostly as good as forecast late last week, and better than expected Monday.  
   The new 6-10 day outlook took heat out of most places east of the Great Plains.  There’s still a tongue of dry moisture from the Southern Plains into the southern Corn Belt, but the rest will be normal/above normal.  The 8-14 warms up a little, but dryness is mostly missing.  
   # Wheat prices fell a little more fundamental pressure than corn/soybeans with harvest underway.  It’s active as far north as southern Kansas and southern Illinois.  
   # Export sales will guide the early trading tomorrow.  The trade is looking for: corn 1.1-1.6 mmt., soybeans 1.0-1.4 mmt., but wheat only 250-450,000 tons. Soymeal sales could be 150-450,000 tons.
   The NOPA May soybean crush was higher than expected, coming in at 152.8 mln. bu.  
   Russian wheat prices are rising.  Even though harvest is just getting underway, there’s some talk about quality issues starting to surface.  The same could be said for wheat to be harvested in parts of Europe this year.  If our quality holds up, it could boost U.S. interest this year.
   The other big key in Wednesday’s trade was the end of the Federal Reserve meeting, and announcements on monetary policy.  They left the interest rate unchanged for now, but still expect to raise rates 2 times yet this year.  They thought the recent poor jobs number was a temporary problem.  

***** Live cattle ended $1.77 to $1.00 lower, feeders $1.90-$1.32 lower, with hogs $1.25 lower to $1.25 higher. ****

   Cattle futures continued their defensive trade behind expectations for increased market ready supplies this summer.  There were also reports of isolated cash trades at slightly lower prices.  Wholesale prices ended steady/lower.             
   Hogs held up better behind slightly stronger cash prices, but the weakness in the cattle/beef complex did not go un-noticed.  Wholesale pork prices also ended down slightly on the day.