AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Thursday, June 16, 2016
***** Corn drop 3 1/2 to 4; soybeans down 18 3/4 to 21 1/2; Chicago wheat off 4 3/4 to 6. ***** 

   # July soybean futures approach technical support from the 20-day moving average, a mark the contract has not settled under since March 3rd.  A deeper correction would have the contract test a key retracement target at $10.77.
   # Export sales were strong for soybeans this week at nearly 1.6 million tons.  The new sales were split about even between 2015/16 and 2106/17 crop years.  Corn sales were a touch short of expectations at 909,700 tons.  
   # The 6-10 day forecast calls for temperatures to moderate in the Midwest while the upper half of the Corn Belt leans wetter, the lower half drier.   
   # Traders digested an update made to the one- and three-month weather maps today.  Government meteorologists assign higher chances to above-normal temperatures than below this summer.  Chances are equal for above- and below-normal precipitation in the Corn Belt. 
   # Today’s update to the U.S. drought monitor included a patch of ‘Abnormally Dry’ ground that stretched from Iowa and Missouri into Illinois.  Most of Indiana is called Abnormally Dry. No part of the Corn Belt yet is tagged with the ‘drought’ classification. 
   # More analysts are out with their estimates for the June 30 Stocks and Acreage reports.  The current consensus has corn stocks at 4.5 billion bushels and just above where they were last year.  Soybean stocks are expected at 800-850 million bushels versus 625 million last year.  
   # The upcoming ‘Brexit’ vote is injecting extra volatility into financial markets.  The British will hold the referendum on whether or not to leave the European Union next Thursday.  A decision to leave could put pressure on the pound and send investors looking for safe haven in the dollar.

***** Live cattle steady to $0.37 weaker as feeders drop $0.62 to $1.10; hogs finish $0.25 to $0.70 higher.  *****

   # Cattle futures finished weaker but well off session lows. Negative outside market influences sparked a sell-off on the start and losses deepened as market participants observed wholesale price falling.  A small number of cash trades was reported at $121, or $6-7 down from last week.  
   # Hogs futures recovered from moderate losses incurred during mid-session while featuring active July/August bear spreading throughout the day.  Traders may look to take profit at the end of the week if cash and wholesale markets do not make any big leaps.