AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, June 17, 2016
***** Corn up 4 1/2 at the break; soybeans gain 13; Chicago wheat higher by 5 1/4 to 6 1/4. *****

   # Friendlier outside markets allow grain bulls to capitalize on levels of minor technical support overnight.  The weather outlook remains a mostly-positive influence for the grains.
   # July corn futures rebounded from a test of support at $4.20 on Thursday and look to wrap up the week with a climb back above the 10-day moving average and toward resistance at $4.39 1/4.  Thursday’s range of $11.28 1/2 - $11.60 stamps out support and resistance for July soybean futures.  
   # Temperatures in the Midwest are expected to level off over the next few weeks.  Chances for a significant rain event are slim for the next several days, though.
   # Crop watchers expect that Monday’s Progress report will include deteriorated condition ratings because of this week having been hot and dry.  As of last Sunday, the corn crop was called 75 percent Good or Excellent with 74 percent of the soybean crop receiving the same marks.   
   # U.S. corn exports are expected to remain strong late in the season as the Brazilians harvest a smaller crop and the Argentines become late in picking theirs.  Still, Thursday’s sales tally was a touch disappointing in that it dropped 42 percent on the week.  
   # Money managers have been seen paring their bullish soy bet back while adding length to the corn position.  Hedge funds are expected to hold net-long positions of approximately 215,000 contracts of corn and 185,000 soybeans.   
   # Saudi Arabia is the latest to tender for wheat in a week that has featured very active trade business.  U.S. exporters enjoyed a good week that included sales of 28 million bushels, or more than double the weekly pace needed to meet the USDA’s current target.        
   # Traders have the idea that the murder of a British parliament member could rally the populace behind the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union.  The ‘Brexit’ vote will be held next Thursday.  

***** Cattle futures look to start steady/firmer on technical buying; hogs likely to open uneven as spreading activity continues to dominate. *****

   # Buyers may show some interest in following up Thursday’s late-session rebound for cattle futures.  There is less bearish uncertainty now that cash direction has been made known.  Live sales were made at $121 on Thursday, down $6-7 on the week.      
   # Hog futures have found support on declining production and strengthening export demand, but there are questions popping up as to whether the futures run has become overextended due to a larger supply outlook for late summer and weaker domestic demand.