AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Monday, June 20, 2016
***** Corn down 13 to 16; soybeans off 14 to 16; Chicago wheat drops 4 to 8. ***** 

   # Weather was the bearish driver at the start of the week with the forecast turning wetter for the Midwest mid-week.  Temperatures should remain warmer than average through the rest of the month.  
   # Condition ratings for the corn crop did not deteriorate like they were expected to.  The Good or Excellent ratings covered 75 percent of the crop.  Ratings for the soybean crop fell back one point to 73 percent G/E.  
   # Winter wheat harvest was pegged at 25 percent done as of Sunday versus a five-year average of 28 percent.  Harvest progress in Illinois was estimated to have jumped from one percent to 38 percent over the last week.  
   # The export inspections report was a mixed bag with corn shipments strong but lower on the week and soybeans higher.  Cumulative corn shipments are behind last year’s pace by 7 percent; USDA projects that the total will fall just 2 percent on the year.  Wheat inspections were a robust 21 million bushels.  
   # July corn futures held technical support from their 20-day moving average and matched but did not trade under last week’s low at $4.20 1/2.  A 38 percent retracement of the spring move up would put the contract back to $4.05.  
   # Analysts are in the process of submitting their estimates for the June 30 Stocks and Acres reports with the numbers due to be published early next week.  The average guess is expected to call for a 1.5 million acre switch in acres from corn to soybeans.  The consensus estimate will likely have quarterly corn stocks a hair above 4.5 billion bushels with beans something just 850 million. 
   # Hedge funds were active sellers of corn at the start of the week after the latest CFTC report showed that their net-long had been extended to a level not seen since last July.  Money managers maintain a position that exceeds 250,000 contracts.  
   # Improved odds on Britain staying in the European Union helped to rally global equity markets and strengthened the pound and euro against the dollar.  A weaker dollar helped put a bid under the energies and industrial metals.

***** Live cattle off $1.77 to $2.30; feeders down $0.75 to $1.25; hog futures finish fractionally mixed.  ***** 

   # Live cattle futures notched in new contract lows as traders surmised that last week’s cash market weakness had not been fully priced in yet.  
   # Up more than 2 percent on the year, retail pork prices are likely to face some pushback from the consumer if they remain so elevated, especially if beef continues to get cheaper.  A steep premium over the lean hog index helps to keep a lid on futures at the start of the new week.