AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, June 20, 2016
***** Corn down 8 to 9 at the break; soybeans off 12 3/4 to 14 3/4; Chicago wheat lower by 3 to 4. *****

   # Grains are not benefitting from a risk-on approach being taken in outside markets.  Global equities are broadly firmer to start the week as traders price in a smaller chance that Britain leaves the EU.  Less Brexit risk has the dollar down against the euro and pound.  Crude oil futures enjoy follow-through strength after a big move on Friday.  
   # Corn futures trade within Friday’s ranges, which leaves $4.23 1/2 as important support for the July contract.  Last week’s low at $11.28 1/2 is potential technical support for July soybeans.  
   # Light rains fell over parts of the Dakotas, Minnesota, Michigan, and in North Central Iowa weekend.  Wider coverage is expected for rains included in the forecast for this week.  Chances are equal for above- or below-normal precipitation through the 6-10 day outlook.   Temperatures in the Midwest should continue to run above normal for the rest of the month.
   # Weather is generally favorable elsewhere around the world.  Dry conditions have already done their toll on crops in Brazil and Argentina and now allow harvest to progress without interruption.  France is drying out after a wet May.  The monsoon season kicked off late in Southeast Asia but is expected to provide above-average rains to the region this year.  Weather has been mostly good for winter crops in Russia/Romania/Ukraine.    
   # The winter wheat harvest took a big step forward last week, although rain caused some delays for growers in Kansas and Oklahoma over the weekend.  Reports on yield and test weight continue to be positive.  
   # Friday’s CFTC report showed another big jump for the hedge fund corn long.  The large speculators added 29,000 new longs and closed out 15,000 shorts to bring the net-long to 252,000 contracts.  Money managers pulled a small bit of money away from soybeans and the net-long dropped to 207,000 contracts.    
   # The upcoming Brexit vote looks to guide outside market this week.  The U.S. economic calendar includes a few reports on the housing market for traders to digest.    
***** Cattle futures look to start steady/firmer on technical buying; hogs firmer.​ *****

   # A big week is ahead for the livestock market with Cattle on Feed and Hogs and Pigs reports due out on Friday.  
   # Livestock futures should find support from lower grain prices, as well as from positive outside market influences at the start of the week.