AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Tuesday, June 21, 2016
***** Corn down 25 cents; soybeans down 10 to 22; Chicago wheat down 14 to 15. ***** 

   # Corn broke out to the downside as attitudes on the weather shifted.  A strong condition ratings report combined with a wetter forecast to trigger the sell-off.  
   # Both the July and December corn contracts settled lower by the exchange-imposed trading limit of 25 cents, so an expanded limit of 40 cents will be in effect for Wednesday’s session.  
   # July corn gave up technical support from the contract’s 20- and 50-day moving average and settled on its lower Bollinger Band.  July soybeans held their 20-day moving average on the close.   
   # Monday’s Crop Progress report included a look at topsoil moisture levels.  Cropland in Illinois is rated 26 percent short, 4 percent very short.  Iowa is 19 percent short, 5 percent very short.  Indiana 25 short, 7 very short.  Ohio 34 short, 5 very short.  Missouri 43 short, 11 very short.
   # Strong storms could develop in the Northern Corn Belt and bring heavier rain totals to eastern Iowa and northern Illinois on Tuesday evening into Wednesday.   
   # A strong Monday inspections report was followed by two daily export sales announcements today.  An unknown buyer booked 126,000 tons of soybeans, about half of which will be scheduled for 2015/16 delivery.  China agreed to purchase 40,000 tons of soybean oil for 2015/16 delivery and also will take 132,000 tons of soybeans for 2016/17 delivery.  
   # The winter wheat harvest continues to roll on with high yields still featured.  Bears suggest better yields will combine with acres that rise above current estimates to make a crop that adds to abundant global inventories. 
   # The dollar index gained despite Fed Chair Yellen’s comments to congress leaning dovish.  The currency trade promises to be active through the rest of the week as market participants price in expectation and outcome of the Thursday Brexit vote.   

***** Live cattle up $0.55 to $1.20; feeders higher by $2.35 to $2.60; hogs steady to $0.47 lower.  ***** 

   # Cattle traders could not ignore corn prices being sharply lower for a second day in a row.  The corn move combined with technical support to trigger short-covering.    
   # Losses were moderate for hog futures as weaker cash expectations barely offset small wholesale gains.  Traders are comfortable being long for now, but they may be inclined to want to take some bit of risk off of the table ahead Friday’s Hogs and Pigs report.