AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, June 21, 2016
***** Corn down 7 to 8 ahead of the break; soybeans off 5 to 9; Chicago wheat lower by 2 to 3. *****

   # Rain fell over part of Midwest Monday evening with totals heaviest in Southwest Iowa and northern Missouri.  Showers came through a band of central Illinois and covered most of Indiana.
   # Parts of Southern Illinois that missed Monday’s showers will expect them today.  Storms are in the forecast for a wide swath of Iowa today and tomorrow.    
   # Corn futures are facing pressure from Monday’s Crop Progress report that showed condition ratings for the corn crop holding steady at 75 percent Good or Excellent.  Traders had expected a one- or two-point deterioration.  Ratings for the soybean crop dropped one point to 73 percent G/E.
   # An overnight slip below the 20-day moving average is technically bearish for July corn futures. The contract trades a nickel ahead of a 38 percent Fibonacci retracement target.  July soybeans trade within Friday’s range, leaving $11.32 1/2 as a level of minor support.   
   # Bull spreading is a feature of the overnight soybean trade.  If weather prospects have improved for the new-crop, strong demand still keeps support under the old-crop contracts.  
   # Rising global equity prices may mean less money to go toward investments in the commodity space this week.  Improved odds on the British staying in the European Union help to restore confidence in the global economy.   
   # Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak before congress today on the direction of monetary policy.  Her comments should give further guidance to currency traders.  The dollar index is off about two percent in June.  

***** Cattle futures look to start steady/firmer on technical buying; hogs likely to have another uneven open.​ *****

   # Cattle futures have reached multi-year lows as uncertainty over demand grows at a time when slaughters are still running high.  Deeply oversold technicals should be expected to limit losses in the short-run.  The end-of-week Cattle on Feed, Hogs and Pigs, and Cold Storage reports will have the largest bearing on price direction over the next several weeks.    
   # A premium over the cash index and overbought technical indicators give buyers caution on hog futures ahead of Friday’s Hogs and Pigs report.