AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Wednesday, June 22, 2016
***** Corn down 3 1/4 to 5 cents; soybeans up 4 1/4 to 6; Chicago wheat fractionally changed. ***** 

   # Corn futures spent much of the session on the positive side of unchanged but fell lower into the last hour of trading.  Both old-crop contracts settled under $4 for the first time in a month.  December futures hold support from $4 for now.  
   # Ethanol production was down five percent on the week, stocks down less than one percent.  Corn grind was still robust at 101 million bushels and above the 96.1 million needed per week to meet the USDA’s current target. 
   # A couple of large daily sales announced recently are expected to help add up to another strong soybean export tally this week.  Traders expect to see about 45 million bushels split between old- and new-crop delivery schedules.  New corn sales for the current marketing year should come in close to 40 million bushels, wheat near 20 million.    
   # Analysts’ estimates for the June 30 stocks and acres report are being sharpened up.  The current consensus looks for quarterly corn inventories to amount to 4.54 billion bushels with soybean stocks at 825 million.  There is not much agreement on where the acres numbers will land relative to the USDA’s March estimates of 9.36 and 82.2 million acres, respectively.
   # Chicago wheat futures once again approach the pivotal $4.50 mark.  Sellers were unable to gain much downside momentum on moves below $4.50 in March, April, and May.  The first half of the U.S. winter wheat harvest has featured great yields, but the related bearishness is partially offset by improving prospects for U.S. export demand.  
   # Oil prices were down in part on a weekly inventory report that showed domestic crude stocks falling by less than expected.  They were down 900,000 barrels on the week.  Maybe the more bearish surprise was the increasing inventories of gasoline and distillates.  
   # Thursday features the much-anticipated Brexit vote.  Market participants in the U.S. will not have a clear outcome to trade on until early Friday morning.  A win for the leave campaign probably unsettles most major financial markets.  

***** Live cattle up $0.10 to $0.30; feeders up $0.50 to $0.90; hogs down $0.92 to $2.62. ****​*

   # Cattle futures followed the wholesale market higher.  Choice beef was up $2.27 at midday, select +0.38.  The cash market is undeveloped yet this week with bids near $116, offers at $120.    
   # Hog futures started flat before taking a turn lower mid-morning when cash prices started to retreat.  Losses mounted further as traders chose to take some profit and pare risk exposure ahead of the Friday Hogs and Pigs report.      

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