AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Friday, June 24, 2016
***** Corn ended down 3-4 lower; soybeans 21-23 lower; Chicago wheat fractionally higher to 2 lower. *****
   The shocking British “Brexit” vote dominated all the market sectors today, but especially the forex and equity sectors.  Much to everyone’s surprise, the British people voted to remove themselves from the EU.  The British Pound collapsed, the Dollar soared, precious metal prices soared, equity markets around the world declined, and commodities other than metals declined.  The referendum starts a process that could take up to 2 years for Britain to extricate themselves from the EU. 
   Weather is the other big variable working the corn market.  Short term forecasts include moisture chances for places that have been missing opportunities, notably the eastern Great Plains and Missouri. 
   The new 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts continue to grow more benign with the cooler than normal area in the heart of the Corn Belt expanding slightly.  Above normal precip stays in a band from Texas east through the South.  Meanwhile, it is expected to stay warmer than normal, drier than normal from the Great Lakes west across the northern states into the PNW. 
   NOPA shaved their May soybean crush estimate 540,000 bushels to 152.8 mln. bu.    
   The coming week, traders will start to look ahead to Thursday’s grain stocks/acreage reports.  Traders are looking for plantings: corn 92.78 mln. acres, soybeans 83.95 mln., spring wheat 11.49 mln. and durum at 2.0 mln.  June 1 stocks are expected to be 4.52 bln. corn, 831 mln. soybeans, and 983 mln. wheat. 
   Gulf soybean basis has been improving with exports remaining robust and futures declining.  Gulf corn basis is showing even more strength this week, with the collapse in futures shutting down producer selling.  And somewhat better export demand is bolstering wheat basis.
***** Live cattle ended $2.05 to $2.97 lower; feeders $2.92 to $2.17 lower; lean hogs 0.22 to $0.75 lower. ***** 

   The USDA COF report was about as expected, with on-feed at 102%, placements at 110%, and marketings at 105%.  The trade still focused on the increased placement rate.  You’ll remember they were up 10% last month.  Boxed beef ended lower on the day.  Cash cattle were mostly at $116-$118 live and $186-$187 dressed.  
   # The USDA issued a quarterly hog report too.  The numbers were slightly larger than anticipated; all hogs and pigs at 102%, breeding herd at 101%, and market hogs at 102%.  The market hog number will be seen the most negatively.  Wholesale pork ended slightly higher.  Cash hog prices were slightly higher.

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