AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, June 27, 2016
***** Corn up 3 to 4 3/4 cents at the break; soybeans higher by 15 to 19 1/2; Chicago wheat up 1 to 2. ***** 

   # Grains make a technical rebound overnight as other financial markets continue to trade risk-off.  Weather influences turn somewhat friendly again.  
   # All markets continue to be affected by the surprise outcome to Thursday’s Brexit vote.  The pound and euro currencies have plummeted in reaction to the vote while capital flows to the dollar and yen.   Pressure on European equities has spilled into the U.S. market while Asian stocks serve as somewhat of a safe-haven play.  Gold rallies. 
   # Weather may lean drier this week in the central Midwest but temperatures are expected to run cooler than normal.  Rain currently falling in the Plains could make its way to the driest parts of Missouri today.  
   # The afternoon Crop Progress report is expected to show a small drop in condition ratings for corn and soybeans.  Both sets of numbers will remain very high relative to the five-year average after last week running 75 percent Good or Excellent for corn, 73 percent for soybeans.  
   # Friday’s Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC showed hedge funds adding 28,792 corn shorts to outstrip 1,325 new longs and bring down the net-long to 224,827 contracts.  The rest of last week featured heavier liquidation.  The fund soybean net-long fell just slightly to 200,000 contracts through Tuesday of last week.  
   # Estimates are circulating for Thursday’s Stocks and Acreage reports.  The average of analysts’ guesses looks for corn stocks to have totaled 4.528 billion bushels at the end of the last quarter, soybean stocks at 829 million.  Analysts expect corn acres to total 92.896 million, soybeans 83.834 million, compared to USDA March estimates of 93.6 and 82.236, respectively. 
   # July corn futures are finding buyers at the contract’s 100-day moving average.  Friday’s low at $3.73 1/2 also lends potential support.  July soybeans approach Friday’s high at $11.32 with resistance just overhead from the 20-day moving average.      
***** Livestock futures likely to start on the defensive in response to Friday’s reports and negative outside market influences. ​*****

   # Friday’s Cattle on Feed report included another bearish placements tally with the number running 10 percent over last year.    
   # The Hogs and Pigs report also leaned slightly bearish as the all-hogs-and-pigs total came in at 102 percent, breeding herd at 101 percent, market hogs at 102 percent. 

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