AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Friday, July 01, 2016
***** Corn down 3 1/4 to 5 3/4 cents; soybeans fall 6 1/4 to 15 3/4; Chicago wheat drops 14 to 15. *****

   # Traders were not finished pricing in Thursday’s Stocks and Acreage reports and took to being sellers of the grains on Friday.  Wheat took the brunt of the pressure as bountiful harvests add to already-abundant global inventories.  
   # December corn futures had an inside day in that the contract did not fall below Thursday’s $3.65 1/4 low.  That mark and the $3.64 lifetime low are points of potential technical support to watch.  
   # November soybean futures did not trade above the report day high of $11.60 3/4, which will serve resistance to the contract at the start of next week.  The 20-day moving average currently rises from $11.28 1/2 to provide technical support. 
   # Grain bulls were seen taking some longs off of the table ahead of the long holiday weekend.  The unknown of weather over a three-day period without trading is enough to encourage some paring of risk.  
   # Rain falling in the Central Plains today is expected to stretch into southern Iowa and Missouri early in the weekend.  The forecast includes spotted showers through the rest of the Corn Belt before early next week. Temperatures turn warmer than average again next week.
   # Analysts will look to exports to see if supplies added by the Thursday reports can be offset any by better demand.  Daily sales announcements have been few this week.  40,000 tons of soyoil were added to the 2016/17 book today. 
   # The afternoon CFTC trader positions report had funds paring their corn long down to 174,726 contracts through last Tuesday. Little change was made to leave the net soybean long at 195,270 futures and options contracts. 
   # WTI crude traded both sides of unchanged as futures bounced back and forth between the August contract’s 20- and 50-day moving averages.  A weaker dollar helped firm some commodities.  Gold rallied as traders hedged their renewed optimism in the equity markets.         

***** Live cattle down $1.05 to $1.85; feeders down $1 to $1.85; hog futures steady to $0.67 higher. *****

   # Traders used technical resistance as one reason to take profits on longs ahead of the weekend.  Cash deals were booked above $120 live this week on smaller showlists.  August futures at $113 maintain a notable discount to the cash.           
   # Hog futures bounced from technical support.  A weaker tone for the cash market limited upside, but wholesale values were able to bounce.