AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, July 05, 2016
***** No overnight prices to report; grain calls are lower. ***** 

   # No overnight session at the start of the shortened holiday week.  Traders expect the grains to open on the defensive after rain fell across the Corn Belt this weekend.  A risk-off tone for outside markets is another negative for grains this morning.    
   # Rains were heaviest in the southern half of the Corn Belt this weekend, providing some relief for some of the driest parts of Missouri and southern Illinois.  Wet weather is expected to stick around in the Midwest through the next several days.  The two-week forecast has temperatures warming up again after a cool weekend.  
   # The trade expects to see corn conditions having deteriorated slightly last week from the 75 percent Good or Excellent that has stood for the last four Progress reports.  Soybean ratings could also come down a point or two from the last reading of 73 percent G/E.
   # Friday’s CFTC trader positions report showed the hedge funds holding still a net corn long.  After cutting 50,000 contracts through last Tuesday and another 15-20 into the end of week, the large speculators are now thought to be holding a net-long near 150,000 contracts.
   # Friday’s close left December corn futures on top of its lower Bollinger Band but not below the previous day’s low of $3.65 1/4.  The contract low is close by at $3.64.  November soybeans were left in better light, technically, with Thursday’s rally recapturing support from the up-trending 20-day moving average.  The report-day low at $10.92 serves key support.    
   # The British pound was back on its heels in further response to the Brexit vote, helping to send the dollar index higher.  Stock futures point to a lower open for the major indexes.  Traders await the monthly unemployment report scheduled for Friday.     
***** Cattle futures look to open steady/firmer; hogs futures start with pressure from negative outside markets.​ *****

   # Cattle futures may keep support from improved sentiment over the cash market.  Retailers will look to replenish supplies after the holiday weekend, when an estimated 64 percent of Americans planned a meal from the grill.  
   # Hog futures are facing new selling pressure as strong pork demand fails to meet growing production.  Slaughters were up fractionally week-on-week and are still running nearly 15 percent ahead of the year-ago total.