AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Thursday, July 07, 2016

***** Corn futures fractionally changed; soybeans down 48 1/2 to 52 cents; Chicago wheat down 1 to 3 3/4. *****

   # Conab’s revision to their Brazilian corn crop estimate was news of the day.  The crop agency cut the country’s 2015/16 tally down from 76.2 to 69.1 million metric tons.  USDA had the number at 77.5 mmt on the June WASDE report. 
   # More than 5 inches of rain fell in parts of southern Illinois overnight.  Much of Missouri collected 0.5-1.5 inches, same for southwestern Iowa.  Storms popped up in the Midwest throughout the day while scattered showers are expected again tomorrow. 
   # The weekly export sales report is pushed to Friday due to the July 4th holiday.  Daily sales announcements this morning included 137,160 tons of corn sold to Mexico, the bulk of which is booked for delivery in 2016/17.  A sale of 120,000 tons of soybeans was made to China for 2016/17.  
   # Ethanol production was down from a strong showing last week but still a robust 6.89 million barrels.  Corn grind was estimated at 103.3 million bushels, well ahead of the 94.2 million now needed per week to meet the current USDA target of 5.25 billion bushels.  Needless to say, ethanol production margins remain strong.  
   # The U.S. soy market has felt some pressure this week from futures trading weaker on China’s Dalian exchange.  The newswire services reported on recent flooding in China that puts into question the country’s feed use outlook.
   # Australian meteorologist updated their outlook for La Nina this week, leaving the tracker positioned on a ‘WATCH’ rating and suggesting that the development of La Nina is still a 50-50 shot.  They note that their analysis indicates a La Nina event as strong as the 2012 event being unlikely. 

***** Live cattle down $0.27 to $0.52; feeders down $0.42 to $1; hog futures drop $0.27 to $0.52. *****

   # A general lack of buying enthusiasm across the ag sector helped weigh on cattle futures.  Slight wholesale gains and tentative cash market optimism helped limit losses for futures.  
   # Hogs dropped on further weakness for the cash market pessimism that outweighed gains for pork.  Fund traders are seen paring down a long hog futures bets now that the attitude on fundamentals has shifted.