AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Friday, July 08, 2016
***** Corn futures up 11 3/4 to 14 1/4 cents; soybeans jump 32 to 35; Chicago wheat higher by 8 3/4 to 10 1/2. *****

   # Grains made a technical bounce that was propelled further by a friendly risk-on trade in outside markets.  Corn’s recovery limited losses to 3 1/4 cents on the week.  Soybean futures were down 79 cents over four sessions while Chicago wheat gained 4 1/2.
   # Corn futures made new lows this week but the December contract did not attract much seller interest below $3.50.  The gap opened on Monday remains open with $3.65 3/4 the level that closes it.  Today’s move pulled November soybeans back inside their Bollinger Bands but did not allow the contract to test Thursday’s high at $10.87.    
   # Strong soybean numbers on the weekly sales report reminded traders of strong prospects for demand.  Tallies added to both the old- and new-crop ledgers were bigger than anticipated.  The export report was followed up by a daily sales announcement that had 35,000 tons of soyoil headed to China in 2015/16.
   # Corn and soybean bulls suggest the forecast points to a hot, dry last half of July.  The government’s two-week weather maps currently corroborate that view, but they also include higher chances for rain that could ease some of the heat potential.    
   # This month’s jobs report surprised by counting an addition of 287,000 payroll entries, which beat the consensus estimate near +175,000.  The unemployment rate increased to 4.9 percent as the labor-force participation rate climbed to 62.7 percent.  Wages increased fractionally on the month and stand 2.6 percent higher than a year ago.  Traders viewed the report as a sign that the economy is not as bad off as the May numbers had suggested, but they do not believe that the results of this month’s report raise considerably the chances of the Fed raising interest rates in 2016.  

***** Live cattle finish fractionally firmer, feeders fractionally mixed; hog futures down $0.55 to $1.30. *****

   # Cattle futures came off session highs as a result of weaker wholesale prices and some doubt about upside potential for cash deals.  A grain rally did not help matters.  August live cattle futures held support from the week’s low at $111.07.   
   # The attitude in the hog market continues to shift bearish as demand enthusiasm no longer outweighs pessimism over rising production.  A 10 percent tumble from the June high leaves August hog futures close to technically oversold territory.