AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Monday, July 11, 2016
***** Corn futures down 6 to 7 cents; soybeans down 2 to 7; Chicago wheat off 3 to 4 1/2. *****

   # Export inspections were strong for corn and up on the week to 53.5 million bushels.  Traders still need to send out 55.9 million per week to meet the USDA’s corn export target for 2015/16.  Soybean inspections were also up on the week to 13.7 million bushels and added to cumulative total that stands at 94 percent of the USDA estimate. 
   # Traders weighed what have been mostly favorable growing conditions up to the present against forecasts that point to the possibility of a hotter, drier last half of the growing season.  Ridging is expected to develop over the Western Corn Belt this weekend and could stretch further east by early next week. 
   # Report day is tomorrow.  USDA analysts will issue an update to the WASDE tables at 11:00am central.  The trade looks for 2015/16 corn carryout to move back up to 1.8 billion bushels while ending stocks for 2016/17 are expected to rise to 2.2 billion from the current 2 billion bushels.  Estimates for the soybean numbers have old-crop carryout falling 20 million bushels with the 2016/17 tally rising from 260 to 285 million bushels as a result of larger acreage.  
   # Wheat futures hover just above fresh contract lows made at the beginning of last week.  The U.S. winter wheat harvest is wrapping up with good results.  A bumper Black Sea crop is expected to provide even greater competition to U.S. traders this fall.  
   # Technical action was bearish for corn futures on the day with December being turned away from its 10-day moving average after closing the gap opened last Tuesday.  The contract managed to hold above Friday’s $3.49 low.
   # The primary technical trend remains up for soybean futures with action over the past four weeks consistent with a correction phase.  November soybeans completed a 50 percent retracement of the March-to-June move up last week.  A 62 percent retracement would place a target on $9.85.    
   # WTI crude futures fell as traders digested data that had the oil and gas rig count rising to 351 last week.  The current rig count is still well off of the 1,609 rigs counted by Baker Hughes in October 2014.         

***** Live cattle finish fractionally firmer, feeders fractionally mixed; hog futures down $0.55 to $1.30. ***** 

   # Cattle futures headed lower in response to a bearish end to last week for cash and wholesale markets.  Cash deals were made $2 lower live, $4-$5 lower dressed.  Boxed beef starts off the new week on the defensive with midday values down $0.26 choice and off $0.14 for select.     
   # Bearish chart patterns have the funds liquidating more of their long hog position.  August futures trade with resistance from their 200-day moving average, but are short-run oversold after dropping more than 13 percent from the June high.