AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, July 12, 2016
***** Corn down 2 3/4 cents across the curve; soybeans fractionally mixed; Chicago wheat down 3. ***** 

   # Grains lack direction on a light overnight trade.  Traders await the 11:00am crop report.
   # Traders expect today’s WASDE update to include a 100 million bushel addition to old-crop corn carryout, 200 million bushels put onto new-crop carryout.  Soybean ending stocks are seen falling by 20 million bushels while the new-crop total rises by about the same amount.  
   # The government analysts are likely to make a significant cut to their Brazilian corn production estimate following Conab’s adjustment.  Last week, Brazil’s crop agency slashed the country’s corn output projection from 76.2 to 69.1 million metric tons.  USDA’s June estimate was 77.5 mmt.
   # Corn crop ratings climbed one point to 76 percent Good/Excellent on this week’s Progress report.  Illinois’ G/E rating jumped four percent to 76 percent G/E and helped offset some slight deterioration in ratings for crops in the Mid-South.  
   # The U.S. soybean crop is rated 71 percent G/E, up one point from last week.  The blooming pace is ahead of normal at 40 percent while seven percent of the crop has set pods.  
   # The Crop Progress report found topsoil moisture conditions having improved last week.  Cropland holding ‘adequate’ or ‘surplus’ moisture is 71 percent of the total.  
   # Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to pop up throughout parts of the central Midwest today, lingering into tomorrow.  The major weather models agree that next week should be hot and dry across the Corn Belt.   
   # Outside financial markets are shaping up to have a risk-on type of day.  Equity traders are generally glad to see the Japanese ready to perform further monetary stimulus.  Brexit worry has faded somewhat as a new British prime minister is being appointed.  U.S. markets are in better shaped after a strong June jobs report restored some confidence in the economy.    

***** August live cattle look to attempt a technical rebound at the start; hogs may similarly benefit from technical buying. ***** 

   # A combination of cash weakness extending in from last week and wholesale weakness developing at the start of this week has put cattle futures on the defensive.  The charts shape up bearish with August live cattle having made new contract lows but also reaching oversold territory.        
   # Hogs continue to find pressure from a liquidating effort being staged by the large speculators.  Demand has failed to keep up with production that never made as deep of a seasonal deep as had been expected.