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AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

 
Friday, July 15, 2016
***** Corn futures give up 5 1/2 to 7 1/2 cents; soybeans down 5 to 11 1/4; Chicago wheat drops 5 1/4 to 8 3/4. *****

   # The last session of the week was a choppy one for the grains, with futures starting lower, recovering into positive territory by midday, and finally falling back into the close.  December corn futures gave up 4 1/4 cents on the week while November soybeans were just 1/2 cent weaker over the five sessions.  December Chicago wheat finished lower by 6 3/4.
   # Thursday’s bearish reversal and Friday’s follow-through to the downside were a product of lost conviction in the forecast.  Predictions from a few of the private forecasters were at odds with the government maps that show a high pressure system bringing extremely high temperatures into the Corn Belt next week.
   # The bullish outlook held by some for an adverse weather turn was offset by the week having featured rain coverage for the entire Midwest.  Five-day precipitation totals ran 1-1.5 inches for the driest spots of SE Iowa and W Illinois.  
   # Data from the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) showed soybean crushings down on the month at 145.05 million bushels.  The tally was off slightly from expectations but still a record for the month of June.  
   # Chinese officials reported success for their initial round of auction offerings from state-owned soybean reserves.  That news along with a better-than-expected GDP report helped re-affirm strong Chinese demand prospects this week.   
   # A big daily sales announcement was made this morning with the USDA reporting that 320,000 metric tons of soybeans were booked by an unknown destination for 2016/17 delivery.
   # The weekly CFTC trader positions report showed funds having turned more bearish than thought on corn.  The large speculators cut 41,494 longs while adding 52,907 shorts, leaving them net-long by only 8,712 contracts.  Their net soybean long fell by just 8,102 contracts to leave them net-long by 159,407 contracts.    
   # The dollar was up against most of its trading partners after retail sales surprised to the upside.  June retail sales were up 0.6 percent on the month and beat a consensus estimate of +0.1 percent.  

***** Live cattle drop $1.80 to $2.22; feeders down $2.12 to $2.70; hog futures lower by $0.30 to $1.40 on bull spreading. *****

   # Bears have pointed to stubbornly high marketings and the resulting elevated beef production levels as reason to sell; the weekly slaughter was estimated to be almost 10 percent higher than a year.  Bulls suggest there should be some risk premium injected into the market to account for temperatures in the West heating up.   
   # More liquidation for hog futures to round out the week.  The CFTC trader positions report showed managed money cutting 7,781 longs and adding 1,519 short through last Tuesday.    
 

  SYMBOL IN EVEN SQUARE