AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, July 15, 2016
***** Corn up rebounds to rest fractionally higher; soybeans down 4 to 5 3/4 cents at the break; Chicago wheat up 1 to 3. *****

   # An active overnight trade has grain futures racking up deep losses.  A volatile week is demonstrated by a range for December corn of 37 cents and a range for November soybeans of 90 1/2 cents.  
   # France is in a state of emergency after a terror attack in the coastal city of Nice.  The news pressured travel stocks lower but the major European indices and U.S. futures held steady.
   # An inch or more of rain fell over a wide swath of Oklahoma and Arkansas overnight. Showers provided some of the driest areas of the Mid-South relief as well.  
   # Areas of the Southern Plains and Mid-South that were wet last night will likely collect more rain today.  A high pressure system is expected to develop in the Midwest starting at the tail end of the weekend, bringing with it high heat and dry conditions.   
   # Commodities did not benefit from a report showing China’s second quarter GDP growing by a better-than-expected 6.7 percent.  Corn and soybean futures closed by about one percent on China’s Dalian exchange Friday.
   # December corn futures have found buyers at $4.50 so far this morning.  The contract is bouncing back and forth around the 10- and 50-day moving averages.  Thursday’s high at $3.80 will serve as a next point of resistance.  
   # Meteorologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) backed off the odds of La Nina developing this fall to 55-60 percent.  A July 11 report from NOAA had pegged chances at 75 percent.  The closely-watched observers in Australia will release an update to their La Nina tracker on July 19th.  

***** Live cattle futures remain stuck in a downtrend but are bouncing from oversold territory; hogs facing resistance from 200-day moving average. ***** 

   # The outlook for slaughters to continue running high has been a bearish market motivator, but the attitude has to change along with the expectation for extreme heat in the West that could become an issue for weights.    
   # Cash and wholesale market weakness keeps hog futures on the defensive, but oversold technicals leave sellers cautious.