AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Monday, July 18, 2016
***** Corn futures gain 4 3/4 to 6 cents; soybeans up 5 3/4 to 10; Chicago wheat up 4 3/4 to 5. *****

   # Coverage was wide for rains that fell over the Corn Belt this weekend.  A wide portion of Iowa collected over an inch across the two days.  The weather forecast still calls for a hot week, but there is less conviction that the extreme heat will linger deep into August.
   # Argentina was talked about as groups of truckers went on strike to protest wage rates that are not keeping up with inflation.  Also notable out of Argentina is a growing suspicion that the new president will step back on his promise to cut soybean export taxes by another five percent.
   # The amount of corn inspected for export was down on the week but still a robust 52.26 million bushels.  Six weeks remain in the 2015/16 crop year for traders to fill the USDA sales target of 1.9 billion bushels.  Soybean shipments have been running behind the pace necessary to meet USDA’s 1.795 billion bushel goal.   
   # Palm oil prices were higher in Asia at the start of the week.  Traders were bullish on data that showed Malaysian exports to India running strong.  It is also friendly that traders are looking for Indonesian palm oil stocks to have dropped sharply on the month.      
   # European wheat prices were up on concern about yields and the quality of the grain coming out of France’s harvest.  Heavy rains have not just been a problem for those in France but also the same lately for producers in Germany and Poland.     
   # There is not a strong consensus on what to expect out of this afternoon’s Crop Progress report.  Some look for corn conditions to drop a point, others gain a point from the 76 percent Good or Excellent achieved last week.  The average guess has soybean ratings holding steady at 71 percent G/E.   
   # Nearby WTI crude futures were down testing technical support from their 100-day moving average.  Recent weakness has resulted in futures having made a 38 percent retracement of the move up that started in January.  Fundamentally, the oil market is facing pressure from recent heavier-than-expected build in inventories of gasoline and distillates.  

***** Live cattle gain $0.57 to $1.52; feeders up $1.60 to $1.85; hog futures down $0.10 to $0.62. *****

   # Cattle futures were higher on short-covering despite a lower close for the cash markets last week and a weaker start for wholesale at the start of this week.  There is no development of a cash trade yet today.  Showlists sizes are estimated to be about even with last week’s.  Choice beef was down $1.73, select off $0.48 on the midday cutout report.        
   # Hog futures continue to drop as sellers point to a rising supply of market-ready animals.  Wholesale prices continue to hold up somewhat better than do cash.  Pork exports are running strong but likely not strong enough to offset decelerating domestic consumption.