AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, July 18, 2016
***** Corn down 2 cents across the curve; soybean futures off 13 3/4 to 16 3/4; Chicago wheat up 1 1/2. *****

   # Corn finds slight support from CFTC data on trader positions that showed funds having turned even more bearish than had been anticipated.  The large speculators finished the last reporting week with a net corn long of just 8,712 contracts.  They still maintain a bullish bean position of more than 150,000 contracts on the net.  
   # Temperatures will run hot this week, no doubt, but forecasters are not ruling out the chance of showers popping up in the Midwest.  Meteorologists now look for the high pressure system to be weaker than they had expected a week ago. 
   # December corn futures are trading on top of their 10-day moving average after being turned away from the 50-day, which is currently trending up from $3.63 3/4.  Last week’s high at $3.80 also serves resistance to the contract.
   # November soybeans trade within Friday’s range, leaving $10.32 1/2 as a point of support.  Below that, $10.21 is the one-month low.  Points of resistance include $11.23 and $11.36 1/4.
   # Transportation workers in Argentina are striking in protest of new grain tariff rates.  The discontent comes while others in the country are upset over the government’s indication that soybean trade taxes may not drop further anytime soon, despite President Macri’s election platform promises.
   # Traders look for this afternoon’s Crop Progress report to feature improved condition ratings.  The nation’s corn crop was pegged 76 percent Good or Excellent last week, soybeans 71 percent G/E.  
   # Black Sea traders were once again the low-cost provider of wheat to Egypt.  Russia and Romania were tapped to source the top-importer with 300,000 tons of wheat for fall delivery.  
   # Shares were mostly higher across global equity markets despite there being heightened uncertainty caused by recent acts of terrorism and a failed coup in Turkey.         
***** Live cattle futures look to open steady/weaker; hog futures in a broader downtrend but register technically oversold. *****  

   # The cattle market continues to have a weak tone as beef production outstrips demand for a meat that has plenty of competition.  Higher temperatures across the U.S. are met with a mixed trade attitude as they get in the way of weight gaining but also turn consumers away from the grill or from the heavy red meat in general.  
   # Hogs were on the defensive in the cash market last week as buyers factored in rising numbers.  Wholesale values held up well as export demand remained robust.