AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Tuesday, July 19, 2016
***** Corn futures tumble 12 to 15 1/4 cents; soybeans down 33 3/4 to 38 1/2; Chicago wheat down 12 to 13. *****

   # Grains continue their back and forth on weather, today back on NOAA forecasts that take away some heat for the Midwest over the next 6-10 days.  Extreme heat will remain through the end of this week before temperatures moderates next week.
   # A higher dollar helped to pressure grains further.  The currency was up on a strong recent string of U.S. economic data, including today’s housing report that showed June starts climbing 4.8 percent on the month when economists were looking for just a 1 percent rise.  Traders expect that the data leave central bankers more willing to up interest rates this year. 
   # December corn futures fell under last week’s low but did not touch the $3.46 contract low marked in on July 6th.  The contract’s 10-day moving average serves minor resistance with a more formidable roadblock being last week’s $3.80 high.  
   # Government officials in Argentina reported quarterly growth of 2.8 percent for employment in the country’s agricultural sector, but improved jobs numbers do little to offset discontent of truckers currently on strike to protest stagnant hauling rates.  Traders are also tracking news of the Argentine government potentially balking on a previous promise to lower soybean export taxes further. 
   # Fund traders were thought to have switched back to being net-bearish corn after today’s sell-off.  They had entered the new reporting week long 170,000 and short 162,000 contracts of corn.  Even after paring the position down considerably, funds remain net-long soybeans by more than 125,000 contracts. 
   # USDA will issue a first “official” pair of corn and soybean yield estimates on the August 12 Crop Production report.  The government analysts bumped up last year’s August corn yield number to 168.8 bushels per acre when the crop condition ratings were running very closely to the current levels (76 percent Good or Excellent).  While soybean yields are hard to pin down with accuracy in early August, crop condition ratings would suggest a high number, potentially up to 48 bushels per acre.  

***** Live cattle down $1.10 to $2.05; feeders drop $1.27 to $1.80; hogs off $0.47 to $1.07. ***** 

   # Cattle futures gave up Monday’s gains as the market faced negative spillover sentiment from the broad ag market.  Traders are not eager to become overly bullish with large numbers of cattle placed on feed still filling the production pipeline.   
   # Hog futures were lower on overall ag market weakness and on falling cash prices.  Direct hogs were negotiated lower by an average of $0.76 as of the midday report filing.