AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Thursday, July 21, 2016
***** Corn futures ended 3-4 lower, soybeans 3-5 higher, with wheat fractional to 5 higher. *****

   Wheat was the best performer, with talk about persistent issues with the French crop deterring selling interest.  Wet field are still slowing harvest, along with leaving a lot of uncertainty regarding quality.  French wheat prices are the most expensive against Chicago since 1973. 
   Export sales were mediocre, but not bad.  Wheat sales, 478,000 tons were in the middle of the range.  Corn sales, 851,400 tons were at the lower end of their range.  Soybean sales, 1.33 mmt., were at the upper end of their range. 
   Weather is dominating the short term scenario.  The new 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts still indicate much of the Corn Belt should have near normal temps.  They also slide in above normal precip chances, especially the western parts of the Corn Belt and the Great Plains.  
   The new NWS forecasts for August project much the same pattern.  Normal temps across much of the Corn Belt, although tending toward warmer than normal starting at the Missouri/Iowa border and south.  There’s a tongue of above normal precip either side of a line from the N. Plains to southern Illinois, with normal precip beyond in the Corn Belt. 
   There is talk about the Argentine truckers strike.  Just 125 trucks showed up at Rosario compared to a more normal of over 7000.  They are demanding a 31% increase in rates to cover increased costs.  But as all S. American strikes, don’t expect one to be long lasting.  Argentine FOB offers are above the U.S.’s.  Brazil is said to have pulled corn export offers.
   There’s ongoing talk about the possibility Chinese imports may slide next year.  Oil World first discussed this on Wednesday.  They and some others are trying to tie it to their auctions of govt. inventories, but they don’t have huge soybean inventories.  But until fall, this could be an ongoing drag.  

***** Live cattle ended $1.90 to $2.65 lower; feeders ended $4.22 to $2.65 lower, and hogs ended $1.75 to $2.22 lower. ***** 

   Choice boxed beef has dropped to $200.  Cash cattle are said to have traded in a $114-$115 range. There’s a new cattle on feed report tomorrow; the trade is looking for placements to be up 6.5%, with the on-feed number expected to be up 1.6%.  Marketings were thought to have been up 9.4% in June.
   Wholesale pork prices softened again today, with the cutout now over $ 2 under the recent high.  Cash hog prices continue to slip lower; down another $1.50 today. Numbers are continuing their slight rise. 
   Weather may be the big negative in both livestock markets, with this summer’s warmer temps thought to be curtailing meat demand in general. At the same time though, the warmer temps reduce hog and cattle performance, suppressing weights and slowing marketings.