AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, July 22, 2016
***** Corn futures down 3 to 3 3/4 cents; soybeans off 19 1/4 to 21; Chicago wheat lower by 2 3/4 to 3 1/2. *****

   # Up to 1.5 inches fell over the driest parts of SE Iowa and W Illinois last night.  Northern Illinois and most of Wisconsin benefited from wide coverage.
   # Scattered showers are expected to pop up throughout the Corn Belt this morning briefly before redeveloping in the afternoon.  The 6-10 day outlook removes extreme heat from the Plains and western Midwest while assigning the best chances to above normal precipitation throughout the Corn Belt.  
   # Rain has been favorable for crops this week, but high temperatures may send crop condition ratings slightly lower, particularly for states in the West.  USDA will likely give consideration to the upcoming few condition rating updates when the government analysts meet to estimate yields for the August 12 Crop Production report. 
   # NOAA updated their one- and three-month weather outlooks, saying that August will likely feature above-normal temperatures as well as above-normal precipitation for the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley.  The Aug/Sep/Oct maps call for warm weather and have no significant chances for precipitation anomaly to speak of.     
   # Fund traders are building a short corn position in a move that has helped bring futures to new contract lows.  Managed money is estimated to be net-short by 25,000 contracts of corn.  The large speculators remain net-long soybeans by more than 100,000 contracts. 
   # There is very little in the way of technical support before $3.18 1/4 for nearby corn futures.  That fall 2014 bottom was the lowest trade since 2008 and 2009 lows of $2.90 and $2.96 3/4, respectively.
   # November soybeans have given up psychological-support from $10 overnight.  A move to $9.85 would complete a 62 percent retracement of the entire March-to-June rally.
   # Outside markets are quiet overnight.  A strengthening dollar continues to be a headwind for the commodity space.  The economic calendar is sparse today. 

***** Live cattle ended $1.90 to $2.65 lower; feeders ended $4.22 to $2.65 lower, and hogs ended $1.75 to $2.22 lower. *****

   # Cattle futures notched in new contract lows ahead on Thursday with cash and wholesale markets the major negative.  Cattle on Feed is reported this afternoon with estimates calling for 101.6 percent total on-feed, 106.5 percent placements, 109.4 percent marketings.    
   # Weakness in the cattle market has spilled over into the hog trade, but the hog market has bear influences of its own, too.  Slaughter is still running high at a time when demand is sluggish, partly because of high temperatures.