AgriVisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Tuesday, July 26, 2016
***** Corn futures ended 2 lower, soybeans 7-10 higher, and Chicago wheat 14 lower. ***** 

   The break in Paris wheat futures set the tone for the decline in the Chicago market.  Sept. ended $4.25/tonne lower, and over $10/tonne off yesterday’s high.  But given a 27% gain over the last 3 weeks, the Paris market was ready for a correction at the least. There was some talk about the better crops in other EU countries that helped set the stage for the move lower today.  The expectations for a potential record Russian crop altered the mix. 
   Weather was the other big variable at play in the grains, with yesterday’s warmer outlooks rebuilding some uncertainty/doubt about the final outcome of this year’s soybean crop.  The new 6-10 and 8-14 days outlooks remained warmer than normal, but the longer one seemed to moderate the warmth problem somewhat.  Above normal precip is still noted for many areas on both the outlooks. 
   The corn market continues to be stuck between the fortunes of the wheat and soybean markets. 
   Exports remain on the agenda for soybeans.  Talk circulated today that more vessels were being fixed for summer loadings, news that would suggest our old-crop exports will exceed the current USDA forecast.  This week’s 25 mln. bu. inspections should have put us ahead by 12-15 mln. bu.  The week-to-week data will guide how we see the final tally coming in.
   We are starting to hear some scattered talk about yields for the looming USDA August crop report.  Their survey will persist through part of next week at least.  The uncertainty is how the current condition ratings might impact producer responses for the USDA survey.  
   Financial/forex/equity markets are waiting for Fed comments when their meeting wraps up Wednesday.  The Bank of Japan holds their meeting at week’s end, which could continue to subdue activity in the short term.

***** Live cattle finished $0.77-$1.50 higher; feeders ended $0.70-$0.92 higher, with lean hogs $1.07 to $0.72 lower. ***** 

   The impact of Friday’s COF report continues to guide cattle futures trading.  Strength in the wholesale market helped guide futures higher as it paves the way for cash prices to hold firm, if not move a little higher. There was a light cash trade at steady money, but with packer margins slightly positive, the cash market is seen as firming a little this week. 
   Hog futures turned lower again in absence of the support from limit gains in cattle futures.  Wholesale prices were lower this week, helping press cash hog prices lower again today