AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Monday, August 01, 2016
***** Corn futures down 8 to 8 3/4 cents; soybeans drop 36 1/2 to 41 1/2; Chicago wheat off a couple. *****

   # Traders found no reason to buy the grains as we kicked off the month of August.  Favorable conditions through the present and a favorable forecast are the major market negative.  
   # November soybean futures put in an overnight high at $10-even before falling to a fresh 3-month low. Volume was lower on the day and with lower open interest should help to attribute today’s losses to long liquidation.  November futures are headed for a test of support from their 200-day moving average, which is flattening out near $9.45.
   # Sellers pointed to a pair of 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook maps that were mostly green to indicate high chances for above-normal precipitation.  The government forecasters currently have a lack of conviction in their maps, though, rating their confidence a 1 out of 5.
   # A hefty daily soybean sale did little to rile up traders.  391,000 tons were booked by an unknown buyer for 2016/17.  The sale was expected and maybe a touch disappointing in size.  
   # Export inspections were robust on the week: 45 million bushels corn, 25 mbu soybeans, 24 mbu wheat.  Corn and soybean exports need to make a rapid pace to meet USDA sales targets, but some analysts still think the final numbers could eventually surpass those targets.
   # Market participants were surprised to see soybean crop conditions gaining one point to 72 percent Good or Excellent instead of dropping one point as expected.  Corn ratings held at 76 percent G/E against expectations for a one point drop there, too. 
   # WTI crude futures were trading below $40 a barrel for the first time since early April today.  Worry of a decelerating decline for U.S. oil production and high domestic gasoline inventories have been the bearish drivers of late.       

***** Live cattle up $2.15 to $2.85; feeders higher by $4.05 to the $4.50 limit; hog futures flat to $1.85 higher on an active bear spread trade.  ***** 

   # Cattle futures caught up to a cash market that had improved Friday afternoon after the exchange was closed.  Wholesale cuts eked out minor gains for the day.  October futures finished over their 50-day moving average and have a test of resistance at $115.32 just ahead.  
   # Hogs followed cattle higher as they also benefited to short-covering related to an oversold technical pictures.  Gains for pork helped out, with a $5.53 gain for the belly average offsetting weakness for ribs and hams.