AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, August 01, 2016
***** Corn down 2 1/2 cents at the break; soybean futures off 16 3/4 to 19 3/4; Chicago wheat up 1 1/2 to 2 1/2. *****

   # Corn and soybeans give up most of Friday’s gains as weather forecast turns more favorable.  Overnight volumes are light to moderate for corn and wheat to slightly heavier for soybeans.      
   # Weekend rains of up to 1.5 inches were spread through the Dakotas and eastern Nebraska.  Close to eight inches fell over parts of north-central Missouri on Saturday and Sunday.  The majority of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio stayed dry.
   # The government’s 6-10 day outlook map features a wetter Midwest.  Temperatures are expected to remain above-normal but extreme heat should be confined to the deep South.  
   # Fund traders added to their short corn bets last week.  Friday’s CFTC report showed the funds long 151,094 contracts and short 216,632.  Managed money liquidated a small bit of soybean longs but remained net long by more than 120,000 contracts.  The large speculators are short Chicago wheat by a record 130,000 contracts.
   # Traders are waiting for data on exports, watching first to see if any daily soybean sales announcements are reported and then looking for the issue of the weekly inspections report.  
   # Crop watchers expect to see a small decline for crop condition ratings on this afternoon’s Progress report.  Corn was tagged 76 percent Good or Excellent last week with soybeans called 71 percent of the same.
   # This week will include a look at industry predictions for the August 12 Crop Production report, which features a first pair of official corn and soybean yield estimates.  The government analysts have been relying on weather-adjusted trend yields of 168 and 46.7 bushels per acre.  Early talk from the trade has expectations hovering near 170 and 48.       
   # Stock traders are for now shrugging off Friday’s weak U.S. GDP reading and waiting to see how this week’s jobs report goes.  Dollar index futures are trading a touch higher with some technical support this morning, but still face pressure from a stronger yen that has resulted in a Bank of Japan policy decision made last week.      

***** Live cattle futures look to start steady/firmer with a test of technical resistance close ahead; hogs look due to bounce from oversold territory.  ***** 

   # Cash cattle traded in small volume at $1-$2 higher after the futures market closed on Friday.  Live deals near $116 leave some premium over a $113 August futures contract.             
   # With October hogs falling in all but two sessions in July, the board is left technically oversold and with a sizable discount to the cash market.  Market participants still look for a seasonal swelling of supply, but one that should be offset by stabilizing domestic consumption and sustained export strength.