AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Thursday, August 04, 2016
***** Corn up a penny ahead of the break; soybean futures up 8 to 12 cents; December Chicago wheat up 4 1/4. ***** 

   # Grains traded steady to firmer ahead of the weekly export sales report.  Overnight news was limited.  Outside markets were mostly quiet.  
   # Export sales were all-around robust, as anticipated.  New corn sales totaled 331,100 tons for 2015/16, 896,300 for 2016/17.  Soybean sales were 542,200 old-crop and 1.13 million new.  Wheat sales were 326,500 tons.  
   # Rain coverage was limited to SE Missouri, S Illinois, and W Kentucky over the past 24 hours.  Precipitation totals have run a touch lighter than had been anticipated.
   # Weather is still a bearish influence on the whole.  Ohio and Michigan have the worry spots for dry weather.  The two-week outlook maps keep the Midwest hot but also wetter than average.  
   # Australian meteorologists released an update to their La Nina outlook this week.  We are still on ‘WATCH’ for La Nina, but Pacific Ocean water temperatures are still well warmer than those that would go along with a La Nina event.  If La Nina does develop, the forecasters suggest that it would likely end up being a weak event.
   # High July temperatures in Ukraine may have taken the top end off of corn yields there.  The extreme heat has moderated for now.  Dry weather has been noted as a stress for corn in parts of China.  Rain is causing some harvest delay and quality worries for the German wheat crop.      
   # Fund traders are still seen holding a bullish bet on soybeans.  The managed money net-long is estimated to remain just above 100,000 contracts.  The funds have built a net corn short of more than 50,000 contracts and are this week starting to cover just a small portion of a record wheat short.  
   # Market participants expect to get a look at another round of estimates for the August 12 crop reports.  Early yield numbers are clustered around 171 bushels per acre corn and 48 bpa soybeans but have run as high as 175 and 48.8.  
   # Stock traders remain cautious ahead of Friday’s jobs reports.  Market participants are reacting the Bank of England’s decision to cut interest rates and initiate further bond buying efforts this morning.     

***** October live cattle start with a test of their 100-day moving average; hogs look to open firmer but uneven on active spreading.  ***** 

   # Better beef prices have traders thinking that cash markets may improve when they start to develop late today or tomorrow.  August futures bounced from newfound support at the 100-day moving average on Wednesday but a steep two-week run has the contract approaching overbought territory in the short-run.               
   # Cash hog and wholesale pork markets are going in the opposite direction as the cattle and beef.  Weaker demand at both the levels of domestic consumption and exports is not keeping up with production.