AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Friday, August 05, 2016
***** Corn up 3 to 3 1/2 cents; soybeans rally 13 1/4 to 17 3/4 cents; Chicago wheat up 2 to 12 3/4 with relative strength in the front. *****

   # The analysts at Informa issued their latest set of production estimates, these derived from yields of 169.8 bushels per acre for corn, 47.7 bpa for soybeans.  
   # Farmers look conservative in their yield estimates by the standard of many market analysts.  The annual Farm Futures survey tallied farmer yield estimates of 168.6 bpa corn and 46.65 bpa soybeans.  
   # A dollar rally did not stand in the way of grains, but it did help deflate energies and metals.  The dollar traded firmer against most currencies as a result of a jobs report that showed payroll additions beating consensus by a wide margin.
   # Another day, another big soybean export sale.  A flash sale of 498,000 tons was booked for delivery to China in 2016/17.
   # Rain was expected in Eastern Corn Belt today.  The forecast has most of the Midwest leaning dry through Monday before storms develop Tuesday to Thursday.  
   # The U.S. drought monitor shows dry pockets expanding in the Eastern Corn Belt.  A “moderate drought” classification is given to parts of central Michigan and northern Ohio.  Elsewhere, South Dakota leans dry, particularly in the western reaches of the state.  
   # December corn futures were unable to clear Thursday’s high on the small move up.  Wednesday’s high at $3.38 1/2 serves minor resistance to the contract.  November soybeans crossed above their 10-day moving average but fell short of the week’s high at $10-even. 
   # A strong jobs report sent the major U.S. stock indices higher.  Nonfarm payrolls were up 255,000 versus expectations of +179,000.  The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.9 percent.   

***** Live cattle futures gain $0.75 to $1.35; feeders up $0.90 to $2.07; hog futures give up $0.20 to $0.30. *****

   # Cattle futures were propelled further by technical buying.  Direction in the cash market was slow to develop after small volume was negotiated at higher prices on Thursday.        
   # An early run of profit-taking supported hog futures but gains were unsustained.  Wholesale prices crept lower and kept the cash outlook negative.