AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, August 05, 2016
***** Corn up 1 to 1 1/2 at the break; soybeans higher by 9 to 10 1/2; December Chicago wheat up 1 3/4.  ***** 

   # Corn trades a penny higher on light overnight volume while soybeans are up on a more active session.  Outside markets are busy sorting out the monthly jobs report.  
   # Thursday’s run of the NOAA weather maps have the 6-10 day outlook running hotter than before.  Chances are that precipitation is above average.  Confidence in the two week forecasts remain low.  
   # China has been an active buyer on the recent soybean price dip.  The top-importer agreed to take another 252,000 tons from the U.S. on Thursday.  That sale was announced after a strong 1.13 million tons was reported for the weekly number.  
   # A turn away from DDGs and other minor feed grain imports has Chinese buyers maintaining a seemingly insatiable appetite for soybeans.  UDSA estimates China will import a record 87 million metric tons of the oilseed in 2016/17, though some analysts suggest that the number would come down if the Chinese government continues to release soybeans from the state reserve.
   # December corn futures have this week’s high of $3.38 1/2 to cross before reaching more formidable technical resistance from $3.46.  November soybeans are working on resistance from the contract’s 10-day moving average while the bulls try to hold onto support from the 200-day.
   # Only 35 percent of the French wheat crop is rated Good or Excellent versus 77 percent a year ago.  France’s government crop agency estimates that harvest will produce 29.1 million tons of soft wheat, or 21 percent less than a year ago.  
   # Cotton futures are extending gains this morning and have gained nearly 20 percent since July 1st.  New two-year highs for the fiber come as a result of strong U.S. exports and robust Chinese demand.  
   # Fund traders are estimated net-long 110,000 contracts of soybeans and net-short 80,000 corn.  The large speculators have yet to start covering any of a record short wheat position.
   # Non-farm payrolls were up 255,000 in July, easily beating the consensus estimate of +179,000.  The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.9 percent against thoughts that it would decline to 4.8 percent.  

***** Cattle futures likely to start steady/firmer; hogs look to open firmer on technical buying  *****  

   # Thursday saw traders taking light profits on the recent run for cattle futures.  Technical momentum remains positive on the secondary uptrend, but some short-run indicators are registering oversold.  The market will find further fundamental guidance when the cash trade becomes more active later today.                 
   # A continued drop for cash hogs have the paper under pressure.  Negotiated cash hogs were reported $0.72 lower at a weighted average of $64.03 on Thursday.  Negotiated wholesale deals are all over the place but generally on the defensive.